I’m quite excited about last week’s predictions and those going forward because of testing and changes I was able to make on one of Savvy’s primary predictor modules. That goal of studying and testing was to refine Savvy Index in determining if betting line point spreads were too high or too low.
I reran all of the weeks to-date in the testing and that is quite a process because each week requires a minimum of two hours (sometimes three) to process.
But, it paid off last week as the Savvy Index was four games better than betting lines in determining the over/under status of point spreads. The system is already better in predicting winners (77% to 76%) and determining over/under in total game points (by a whopping plus 44 games).
Below are predictions for this week:
| Savvy Index | 2022 | |||||
| predictions | week | 10 | ||||
| last week 37-11 77% | last week vs bookies >> | spreads + 4 total pts +6 | 10/30/22 | |||
| top 25 | season: 440-137 77% | wins | losses | game rating | notes | final |
| 14 | UCLA | 7 | 1 | 38 | ||
| Arizona St. | 3 | 5 | 21 | |||
| 8 | Oregon | 7 | 1 | 46 | ||
| Colorado | 1 | 7 | 17 | |||
| Washington St. | 4 | 4 | 30 | |||
| Stanford | 3 | 5 | 21 | |||
| California | 3 | 5 | 14 | Bookies have USC favored | ||
| 11 | USC | 7 | 1 | 40 | by under 20. | |
| Arizona | 3 | 5 | 21 | Arizona just doesn’t have | ||
| 12 | Utah | 6 | 2 | 43 | enough defensive talent yet. | |
| 22 | Oregon St. | 6 | 2 | 32 | Vegas says Washington | |
| Washington | 6 | 2 | 28 | wins this by 4.5. | ||
| Liberty | 7 | 1 | 28 | I like Liberty but the Flames | ||
| Arkansas | 5 | 3 | 30 | should not be nationally ranked by coaches. | ||
| Air Force | 5 | 3 | 31 | Total points will certainly be more | ||
| Army | 3 | 4 | 24 | than 40.5 shown on betting lines. | ||
| BYU | 4 | 5 | 20 | Boise spent all of October | ||
| 21 | Boise St. | 6 | 2 | 35 | getting things to finally work. | |
| Duke | 5 | 3 | 35 | |||
| Boston Col | 2 | 6 | 17 | |||
| W Michigan | 3 | 5 | 23 | Betting lines say BGSU will win by | ||
| Bowling Green | 4 | 4 | 31 | three but it will be double digits. | ||
| W Kentucky | 5 | 4 | 37 | |||
| Charlotte | 2 | 7 | 25 | |||
| Navy | 3 | 5 | 17 | Navy has really been coming | ||
| Cincinnati | 6 | 2 | 34 | on strong lately. | ||
| App State | 5 | 3 | 27 | Bookies call this for | ||
| Coastal Car | 7 | 1 | 32 | AppState by about 1.5. | ||
| Massachusetts | 1 | 7 | 17 | |||
| Connecticut | 4 | 5 | 28 | |||
| Hawai’i | 2 | 7 | 17 | Hawai’i has four of its last five games as | ||
| Fresno St. | 4 | 4 | 34 | net positives on Savvy. | ||
| 2 | Tennessee | 8 | 0 | 30 | ||
| 3 | Georgia | 8 | 0 | 33 | ||
| S Alabama | 6 | 2 | 28 | I personally agree with bettors | ||
| Georgia So. | 5 | 3 | 31 | who favor SoAla. | ||
| Michigan St. | 3 | 5 | 16 | |||
| 9 | Illinois | 7 | 1 | 31 | ||
| 17 | Penn St. | 6 | 2 | 38 | Indiana started 3-0 but | |
| Indiana | 3 | 5 | 20 | has lost its last five in a row. | ||
| W Virginia | 3 | 5 | 23 | |||
| Iowa St. | 3 | 5 | 31 | |||
| 20 | Oklahoma St. | 6 | 2 | 37 | ||
| Kansas | 5 | 3 | 28 | |||
| 19 | Texas | 5 | 3 | 26 | Texas hasn’t won a road game all | |
| 13 | Kansas St. | 6 | 2 | 28 | year. Still, bookies favore Kansas St. | |
| Ball St. | 4 | 4 | 29 | Bookies see this | ||
| Kent St. | 3 | 5 | 28 | as KSU winning by 4. | ||
| Troy | 6 | 2 | 28 | |||
| Louisiana | 4 | 4 | 20 | |||
| James Madison | 5 | 2 | 23 | Two red hot teams with | ||
| Louisville | 5 | 3 | 32 | coaches who will get offers. | ||
| Texas St. | 3 | 5 | 28 | |||
| LA Monroe | 2 | 6 | 25 | |||
| Middle Tenn | 4 | 4 | 35 | |||
| LA Tech | 3 | 5 | 28 | |||
| 5 | Alabama | 7 | 1 | 30 | ||
| 15 | LSU | 6 | 2 | 28 | ||
| 24 | UCF | 6 | 2 | 36 | ||
| Memphis | 4 | 4 | 24 | |||
| 23 | Florida St. | 5 | 3 | 30 | Was Cristobal a good hire if he can’t | |
| Miami Fl | 4 | 4 | 20 | win seven games like Miami won last year? | ||
| Auburn | 3 | 5 | 17 | Auburn qbs have combined to throw | ||
| Mississippi St. | 5 | 3 | 35 | six td passes and 10 interceptions. | ||
| Kentucky | 5 | 3 | 26 | |||
| Missouri | 4 | 4 | 21 | |||
| Minnesota | 5 | 3 | 32 | Nebraska son’t get to a bowl game | ||
| Nebraska | 3 | 5 | 20 | but the Huskers are actually playing good football. | ||
| Wake Forest | 6 | 2 | 30 | |||
| N Carolina St. | 5 | 3 | 27 | |||
| C Michigan | 2 | 6 | 28 | CMU hasn’t posted a net-positive | ||
| N Illinois | 2 | 6 | 30 | game on Savvy all season. | ||
| 1 | Ohio St. | 8 | 0 | 42 | Bookies say OSU by 38 but | |
| Northwestern | 1 | 7 | 14 | the final will be less. | ||
| Florida Intl. | 3 | 5 | 21 | |||
| N Texas | 5 | 4 | 37 | |||
| 6 | Clemson | 7 | 0 | 28 | I think Savvy and the Bookies | |
| 25 | Notre Dame | 5 | 3 | 24 | have this wrong. ND will win. | |
| Buffalo | 5 | 3 | 34 | |||
| Ohio | 5 | 3 | 27 | |||
| 18 | Baylor | 5 | 3 | 36 | Vegas favors Oklahoma. | |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 3 | 27 | |||
| Marshall | 4 | 4 | 28 | |||
| Old Dominion | 3 | 6 | 21 | |||
| 25 | Syracuse | 6 | 2 | 33 | I have no idea why bettors | |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 24 | favor Pitt. | ||
| Iowa | 4 | 4 | 21 | Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is the longest tenured | ||
| Purdue | 5 | 3 | 25 | coach in FBS but he’s under great pressure right now. | ||
| UTEP | 4 | 4 | 28 | UTEP has been hard to predict | ||
| Rice | 4 | 4 | 27 | but I agree with Savvy the Miners win this game. | ||
| 4 | Michigan | 8 | 0 | 35 | ||
| Rutgers | 4 | 4 | 14 | |||
| UNLV | 4 | 4 | 21 | |||
| San Diego St. | 4 | 4 | 30 | |||
| Colorado St. | 2 | 6 | 12 | |||
| San Jose St. | 5 | 2 | 34 | |||
| Houston | 5 | 3 | 34 | This is a “Pick ‘em” kind of game. | ||
| SMU | 4 | 4 | 33 | Bookies favore SMU. | ||
| Georgia St. | 3 | 5 | 24 | |||
| S Miss | 5 | 3 | 31 | |||
| Texas Tech | 4 | 4 | 27 | |||
| 7 | TCU | 8 | 0 | 38 | ||
| USF | 1 | 7 | 26 | Bookies favor USF but all primary | ||
| Temple | 2 | 6 | 28 | indicators on Savvy point to Temple. | ||
| Florida | 4 | 4 | 24 | Florida has a better record but | ||
| Texas A&M | 3 | 5 | 29 | A&M will win this game. | ||
| Tulane | 7 | 1 | 35 | |||
| Tulsa | 3 | 5 | 23 | |||
| UTSA | 6 | 2 | 32 | This game has a high | ||
| UAB | 4 | 4 | 24 | upset rating on Savvy. | ||
| New Mexico | 2 | 6 | 20 | |||
| Utah St. | 3 | 5 | 30 | |||
| S Carolina | 5 | 3 | 37 | Vanderbilt has lost | ||
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 5 | 21 | its last four in a row. | ||
| 10 | N Carolina | 7 | 1 | 38 | ||
| Virginia | 3 | 5 | 17 | |||
| Georgia Tech | 3 | 4 | 23 | Virginia Tech has better | ||
| Virginia Tech | 2 | 6 | 24 | over all trends | ||
| Maryland | 6 | 2 | 26 | |||
| Wisconsin | 4 | 4 | 28 | |||
Savvy Game Line 