Now that all of our FBS football teams have coaches, we can take a look at each team’s situation, at least as it pertains to the coaches, and do some projections of how teams will do in the 2020 season.
That is, if there is a 2020 season.
Since we’re all in this Corona-mania thing, can I ask a question? Who on earth gave this virus that name? I mean, is it beer? A cigar? If it’s beer, then why choose some bland, pale lager like Corona? I mean really. Don’t they have Dos Equis in China? Think about it. If you load the people up with Dos Equis, you won’t even need to tell them to self-quarantine.
Nonetheless, we move on.
We are using the same preseason system as always but this season, we’ve elected to merge thousands of cells of data into four elements and convert results into a projection of how many wins each team can expect if assessed just on its coaching situation and against a traditional schedule.
Even more, we want to be able to predict the first full week of games in September and do it as well as we have in the past. Last year, the Savvy Index accurately predicted 74 winners in the 83 games of Week 1. (After the first game, the regular season program takes over.)
Today we are dealing only with the coaching module and our goal statement is this:
As much as it is dependent solely on the coach, how successful will each team be in the coming season?
Later, we’ll plug this coaches-only data into assessments for other factors {quarterbacks, returning effective producers, assistant coaches, etc.) and we’ll produce a comprehensive win expectation for each team.
To keep things simple, we’re only going to look at four primary elements:
#1. Program Situation
A coach might be good enough to win 12 games, but a big part of whether or not he will do that depends on the situation he is in. Les Miles at Kansas is a good example. The Program Situation moderates each coach’s ability with the program he is in.
#2. Program Trend:
At what rate has each team been trending upward or downward in recent seasons?
3: Recruiting Trend:
While we won’t post all of the statistics for each team’s recruiting, it is important to know if there is a measurable trend in recruiting when evaluating the performance of coaches.
4: Coaches here less than two years
Savvy’s statistical summaries reveal that a new coach won’t show his value until just past the midway point of his second year—usually. Until their third year at the same school, Savvy handles them as “new” coaches and uses a separate survey to project how successful they will be in their current situations.
It may seem like any team that has had the same head coach for a few years shouldn’t have to be rated each preseason. However, head coaches change assistant coaches and that affects the over all perception and rating of head coaches.
We have the complete list of 130 coaches at the bottom of this feature, but for now, let’s just look at which coaches are hot and which ones are cold and the reasons why Savvy lists them as such.
THE HOT DOZEN:
1. Mario Cristobal, Oregon
| Cristobal has the highest rating of all coaches when it comes to elevating wins and recruiting in each successive season. In addition, he’s solved accountability issues, hired an elite staff and has just added Joe Moorehead as offensive coordinator, a move that will produce pure magic. |
2. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
| I wasn’t expecting Whittingham to be among the hotties but he has also increased his programs wins and recruiting stats for three straight years. He has steadily built Utah into a PAC-12 South champion and national contender. |
3. Dan Mullen, Florida
| The Gators won four games before Mullen arrived. They’ve averaged 10.5 since. Recruiting has spiked upward and Florida has become a popular destination for transfer players. |
4. Brady Hoke, San Diego State
| Hoke benefits somewhat from having had prior success at SDSU. |
5. Bronc Mendenhall, Virginia
| Watch out for the Cavaliers because Mendenhall is a superior coach who has built perennial bowl teams everywhere he’s been. |
6. Herm Edwards, Arizona State
|
7. Todd Graham, Hawai’i
| Surprising to see Graham here, but yes, he does measure out as one of the best new hires in the FBS. It’s been awhile since he coached FBS but his resume’ and style are ideal here. |
8. Dave Aranda, Baylor
| This is Aranda’s first head coaching job and he is ready. A great hire who has an impressive background with elite teams. He’s taking over a fast-rising program that is stocked with talent so this is a no-brainer. I personally think Aranda deserves a higher ranking. |
9. Hugh Freeze, Liberty
| All four elements that we are assessing are positive and if he can win games while coaching from his hospital bed, then yeah, he deserves to be called a “hot” coach. |
10. Mack Brown, North Carolina
| Brown raised UNC wins by 250% and recruiting by 112%. Still, there’s a sense that some of those wins were more good fortune than good coaching. Can’t really buy into the Mack mystique unless he does it again in 2020. |
11. Will Healy, Charlotte
| Is Healy really this good and is it too early the value his performance so far? We expected Will to survive through 2019 but instead, he brought the house down. He increased wins by three and recruiting trends are all positive. |
12. Greg Schiano, Rutgers
| I’ve had doubts about some of Schiano’s antics, but one thing is clear: he is a great football coach and he has elite training. On his own, he is one of the top new hires in America, but … well … this is Rutgers. |
THE COLD SIX:
1. Josh Heupel, UCF
| When Heupel took the UCF job, Savvy projected that he lacked the resume’ to perpetuate the Knights’ tradition as the top Mid-Major team in America. Wins have decreased each year since his arrival at UCF and performance trends on Savvy during 2018 and 2019 were net-negative for the first time in UCF’s past six seasons. |
2. Tom Herman, Texas
| Herman isn’t on this “cold” list because of one bad season. The Longhorns have routinely under-performed game expectations and, as we said at the time Herman was hired, he lacks the elite resume’ that supports his ability to elevate a Power Five, storied program. |
3. Jason Candle, Toledo
| Two years ago, Candle was celebrated as one of the hottest coaches in the nation. Every year since 2017, wins have been less. Last season ended with the Rockets losing four of their last six and missing a bowl game for the first time in Candle’s tenure. |
4. Butch Davis, Florida International
| Butch has been the darling of FIU fans and media but all of his coaching metrics have been declining since he took over in 2017. The program is in slow decay and it’s only a matter of time before FIU’ers figure it out. |
5. Matt Campbell, Iowa State
| I’ve been a Campbell fan since he built Toledo into a M-M power. But, the bloom is off the rose in Ames, Iowa and Campbell really should have accepted one of those other offers. |
6. David Shaw, Stanford
| In December, we covered the decline of Stanford and the reasons why the Tree has become the target for relief of all of their animal rivals in the PAC-12 North. To read more, click here. Fifteen players from Stransford entered the transfer portal in the off-season. |
Here are the Savvy projections for each team based on the coaches in their current situations.
| Savvy Game Line | 2020 | ||||||||
| coaching success projections | |||||||||
| c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | c7 | c8 | c9 | c10 |
| rank | team | here since | program situation base | program trend | recruiting trend | coach less than 2 years [survey] | projected wins | who’s hot and who’s cold | |
| 26 | Air Force | 07 | Troy Calhoun | 6.8 | .9 | .5 | 0 | 8.1 | |
| 128 | Akron | 19 | Tom Arth | 2.3 | -1.3 | .5 | 0 | 1.6 | |
| 6 | Alabama | 07 | Nick Saban | 10.2 | -.9 | 1.4 | 0 | 10.7 | |
| 5 | Appalachian St. | 20 | Shawn Clark | 9.4 | 1.3 | -.5 | 1 | 10.7 | |
| 122 | Arizona | 18 | Kevin Sumlin | 4.3 | -1.3 | -.5 | 0 | 2.5 | cold |
| 21 | Arizona St. | 18 | Herm Edwards | 6.4 | .9 | 1.4 | 0 | 8.6 | hot |
| 127 | Arkansas | 20 | Sam Pittman | 2.1 | -.4 | -.5 | 0 | 1.6 | |
| 70 | Arkansas St. | 14 | Blake Anderson | 6.2 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 5.7 | |
| 48 | Army | 14 | Jeff Monken | 6.6 | -.4 | .5 | 0 | 6.6 | |
| 34 | Auburn | 13 | Gus Malzahn | 7.7 | .4 | -.5 | 0 | 7.6 | |
| 80 | Ball St. | 16 | Mike Neu | 3.4 | 1.3 | .5 | 0 | 5.1 | |
| 17 | Baylor | 20 | Dave Aranda | 6.4 | 1.3 | .5 | 1 | 9.0 | hot |
| 12 | Boise St. | 14 | Bryan Harsin | 9.6 | .4 | -.5 | 0 | 9.5 | |
| 74 | Boston Col | 20 | Jeff Hafley | 5.5 | -.9 | .5 | 0 | 5.6 | |
| 118 | Bowling Green | 19 | Scott Loeffler | 2.3 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 3.3 | |
| 55 | Buffalo | 15 | Lance Leopold | 6.4 | -.4 | .5 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 52 | BYU | 16 | Kilani Sitake | 5.7 | 1.3 | -.5 | 0 | 6.6 | |
| 43 | C Michigan | 19 | Jim McElwain | 5.3 | .4 | .5 | 1 | 6.9 | |
| 45 | California | 18 | Justin Wilcox | 6.0 | 1.3 | -.5 | 0 | 6.8 | |
| 60 | Charlotte | 19 | Will Healy | 4.0 | 1.3 | .9 | 0 | 6.3 | hot |
| 20 | Cincinnati | 17 | Luke Fickell | 7.9 | .4 | .5 | 0 | 8.7 | |
| 1 | Clemson | 08 | Dabo Swinney | 11.3 | 1.3 | .5 | 0 | 12.0 | |
| 93 | Coastal Car | 19 | Jamey Chadwell | 3.8 | .4 | -.5 | 1 | 4.6 | |
| 72 | Colorado | 20 | Karl Dorrell | 4.3 | .0 | .9 | 1 | 5.7 | |
| 86 | Colorado St. | 20 | Steve Addazio | 3.8 | .4 | .0 | 1 | 4.9 | |
| 124 | Connecticut | 17 | Randy Edsall | 1.7 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 2.1 | |
| 109 | Duke | 08 | David Cutcliffe | 5.3 | -.4 | -.9 | 0 | 4.0 | cold |
| 89 | E Carolina | 19 | Mike Houston | 3.0 | .9 | .0 | 1 | 4.8 | |
| 91 | E Michigan | 14 | Chris Creighton | 5.1 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 4.7 | |
| 9 | Florida | 18 | Dan Mullen | 7.7 | 1.3 | .9 | 0 | 9.8 | hot |
| 23 | Florida Atl. | 20 | Willie Taggart | 7.9 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 8.5 | |
| 85 | Florida Intl. | 17 | Butch Davis | 6.4 | -.9 | -.5 | 0 | 5.1 | cold |
| 44 | Florida St. | 20 | Mike Norvell | 5.1 | .4 | .0 | 1 | 6.8 | |
| 65 | Fresno St. | 20 | Kalen DeBoer | 6.4 | -.4 | -.5 | 0 | 6.0 | |
| 15 | Georgia | 16 | Kirby Smart | 10.2 | .4 | -1.4 | 0 | 9.3 | |
| 82 | Georgia So. | 18 | Chad Lunsford | 5.5 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 5.1 | |
| 75 | Georgia St. | 17 | Shawn Elliott | 4.9 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 5.3 | |
| 110 | Georgia Tech | 19 | Geoff Collins | 3.8 | -.4 | .5 | 0 | 4.0 | |
| 19 | Hawai’i | 20 | Todd Graham | 6.6 | 1.3 | .0 | 1 | 8.9 | hot |
| 69 | Houston | 19 | Dana Holgorsen | 4.9 | -.4 | .0 | 1 | 5.9 | |
| 92 | Illinois | 16 | Lovie Smith | 4.3 | .9 | -.5 | 0 | 4.7 | |
| 67 | Indiana | 17 | Tom Allen | 5.5 | .9 | -.5 | 0 | 5.9 | |
| 28 | Iowa | 01 | Kirk Ferentz | 7.2 | 1.3 | -.5 | 0 | 8.1 | |
| 84 | Iowa St. | 16 | Campbell, Matt | 6.4 | -.9 | -.5 | 0 | 5.1 | cold |
| 115 | Kansas | 19 | Les Miles | 3.6 | -.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 3.5 | |
| 40 | Kansas St. | 19 | Chris Klieman | 5.5 | .9 | .0 | 1 | 7.1 | |
| 83 | Kent St. | 18 | Lewis, Sean | 4.7 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 5.1 | |
| 54 | Kentucky | 13 | Mark Stoops | 6.0 | -.4 | .9 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 22 | LA Lafayette | 18 | Billy Napier | 7.2 | .9 | .5 | 0 | 8.5 | |
| 95 | LA Monroe | 16 | Matt Viator | 4.5 | -.4 | .5 | 0 | 4.5 | |
| 27 | LA Tech | 13 | Skip Holtz | 6.8 | 1.3 | .0 | 0 | 8.1 | |
| 31 | Liberty | 19 | Hugh Freeze | 5.5 | .4 | .5 | 1 | 7.7 | hot |
| 41 | Louisville | 19 | Scott Satterfield | 5.5 | .4 | -.5 | 2 | 7.1 | |
| 3 | LSU | 16 | Ed Orgeron | 10.4 | 1.3 | .5 | 0 | 12.0 | |
| 50 | Marshall | 10 | Doc Holliday | 7.0 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 6.6 | |
| 112 | Maryland | 19 | Mike Locksley | 3.2 | -.4 | .5 | 1 | 3.7 | |
| 125 | Massachusetts | 19 | Walt Bell | 2.1 | -.9 | .5 | 0 | 1.8 | |
| 11 | Memphis | 20 | Ryan Silverfield | 8.9 | .4 | -.5 | 1 | 9.7 | |
| 77 | Miami Fl | 19 | Manny Diaz | 6.2 | -1.3 | -.5 | 1 | 5.2 | |
| 42 | Miami Oh | 14 | Chuck Martin | 5.7 | 1.3 | .0 | 0 | 7.0 | |
| 46 | Michigan | 15 | Jim Harbaugh | 7.7 | -.4 | -.5 | 0 | 6.8 | |
| 53 | Michigan St. | 20 | Mel Tucker | 6.6 | -.4 | -.5 | 1 | 6.5 | |
| 98 | Middle Tenn | 06 | Rick Stockstill | 4.9 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 4.5 | |
| 18 | Minnesota | 17 | P.J. Fleck | 7.2 | 1.3 | .5 | 0 | 9.0 | |
| 113 | Mississippi | 20 | Lane Kiffin | 4.0 | -1.3 | -.5 | 1 | 3.6 | |
| 68 | Mississippi St. | 20 | Mike Leach | 6.2 | -1.3 | -.5 | 1 | 5.9 | |
| 57 | Missouri | 20 | Eliah Drinkwitz | 6.2 | -1.3 | .9 | 1 | 6.4 | |
| 49 | N Carolina | 19 | Mack Brown | 4.0 | .4 | .5 | 2 | 6.6 | hot |
| 105 | N Carolina St. | 13 | Dave Doeren | 5.5 | -.9 | -.5 | 0 | 4.2 | cold |
| 88 | N Illinois | 19 | Thomas Hammock | 5.5 | -.9 | .0 | 0 | 4.8 | |
| 90 | N Texas | 16 | Seth Litrell | 5.5 | -.9 | .0 | 0 | 4.7 | |
| 32 | Navy | 07 | Ken Niumatalolo | 6.8 | .4 | .5 | 0 | 7.7 | |
| 79 | Nebraska | 18 | Frost, Scott | 3.8 | .9 | .5 | 0 | 5.1 | |
| 87 | Nevada | 17 | Jay Norvell | 5.3 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 4.9 | |
| 126 | New Mexico | 20 | Danny Gonzalez | 2.1 | -.9 | .5 | 0 | 1.8 | |
| 129 | New Mexico St. | 13 | Doug Martin | 3.0 | -1.3 | -.5 | 0 | 1.3 | cold |
| 103 | Northwestern | 06 | Pat Fitzgerald | 5.1 | -1.3 | .5 | 0 | 4.3 | |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 10 | Brian Kelly | 9.4 | -.4 | .9 | 0 | 9.8 | |
| 56 | Ohio | 05 | Frank Solich | 6.8 | -.9 | .5 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 2 | Ohio St. | 19 | Ryan Day | 10.6 | .4 | .0 | 1 | 12.0 | |
| 14 | Oklahoma | 17 | Lincoln Riley | 10.2 | .0 | -.9 | 0 | 9.3 | |
| 71 | Oklahoma St. | 05 | Mike Gundy | 6.6 | -.4 | -.5 | 0 | 5.7 | |
| 114 | Old Dominion | 20 | Ricky Rahne | 2.6 | -.9 | 1.4 | 1 | 3.6 | |
| 4 | Oregon | 18 | Mario Cristobal | 8.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0 | 11.1 | hot |
| 108 | Oregon St. | 18 | Jonathan Smith | 2.8 | 1.3 | .0 | 0 | 4.0 | |
| 29 | Penn St. | 14 | James Franklin | 8.9 | .4 | -1.4 | 0 | 8.0 | |
| 33 | Pittsburgh | 15 | Pat Narduzzi | 6.0 | 1.3 | .5 | 0 | 7.7 | |
| 94 | Purdue | 17 | Jeff Brohm | 4.5 | -1.3 | 1.4 | 0 | 4.5 | |
| 119 | Rice | 18 | Mike Bloomgren | 1.9 | 1.3 | .0 | 0 | 3.2 | |
| 96 | Rutgers | 20 | Greg Schiano | 2.1 | .4 | .0 | 2 | 4.5 | hot |
| 123 | S Alabama | 18 | Joey Jones | 2.1 | -.4 | .5 | 0 | 2.2 | |
| 101 | S Carolina | 16 | Will Muschamp | 5.1 | -1.3 | .5 | 0 | 4.3 | |
| 58 | S Miss | 16 | Jay Hopson | 6.0 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 6.4 | |
| 16 | San Diego St. | 20 | Brady Hoke | 7.0 | .4 | .0 | 2 | 9.1 | hot |
| 120 | San Jose St. | 17 | Brent Brennan | 2.8 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 3.2 | |
| 39 | SMU | 18 | Sonny Dykes | 6.8 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 7.2 | |
| 104 | Stanford | 11 | David Shaw | 5.5 | -.9 | -.5 | 0 | 4.2 | cold |
| 106 | Syracuse | 16 | Dino Babers | 5.1 | -.4 | -.5 | 0 | 4.2 | |
| 78 | TCU | 01 | Gary Patterson | 6.0 | -1.3 | .5 | 0 | 5.1 | |
| 30 | Temple | 19 | Rod Carey | 6.4 | .4 | .0 | 1 | 7.8 | |
| 63 | Tennessee | 18 | Jeremy Pruitt | 5.3 | 1.3 | -.5 | 0 | 6.1 | |
| 76 | Texas | 17 | Tom Herman | 7.0 | -.4 | -1.4 | 0 | 5.2 | cold |
| 35 | Texas A&M | 18 | Jimbo Fisher | 6.6 | .4 | .5 | 0 | 7.5 | |
| 116 | Texas St. | 19 | Jake Spavital | 2.3 | .4 | .5 | 0 | 3.4 | |
| 111 | Texas Tech | 19 | Matt Wells | 4.0 | -1.3 | .5 | 1 | 3.9 | |
| 81 | Toledo | 16 | Jason Candle | 6.4 | -1.3 | .0 | 0 | 5.1 | cold |
| 59 | Troy | 19 | Chip Lindsey | 6.6 | -1.3 | .0 | 1 | 6.4 | |
| 66 | Tulane | 16 | Willie Fritz | 5.5 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 6.0 | |
| 107 | Tulsa | 15 | Phillip Montgomery | 2.8 | 1.3 | .0 | 0 | 4.0 | |
| 36 | UAB | 14 | Bill Clark | 7.9 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 7.4 | |
| 25 | UCF | 18 | Josh Heupel | 9.6 | -1.3 | .0 | 0 | 8.3 | cold |
| 102 | UCLA | 18 | Chip Kelly | 3.4 | .4 | .5 | 0 | 4.3 | |
| 117 | UNLV | 20 | Marcus Arroyo | 3.6 | -.4 | .0 | 0 | 3.3 | |
| 73 | USC | 15 | Clay Helton | 6.6 | .4 | -1.4 | 0 | 5.7 | |
| 97 | USF | 20 | Jeff Scott | 4.9 | -1.3 | .0 | 1 | 4.5 | |
| 7 | Utah | 05 | Kyle Whittingham | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0 | 10.7 | hot |
| 38 | Utah St. | 19 | Gary Anderson | 6.6 | -.4 | .5 | 1 | 7.2 | |
| 130 | UTEP | 18 | Dana Dimal | 0.6 | .4 | -.5 | 0 | 0.6 | |
| 100 | UTSA | 20 | Jeff Traylor | 3.6 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 4.3 | |
| 64 | Va Tech | 16 | Justin Fuentes | 6.6 | .4 | -.9 | 0 | 6.1 | |
| 121 | Vanderbilt | 14 | Derek Mason | 3.6 | -.4 | -.5 | 0 | 2.7 | |
| 13 | Virginia | 16 | Bronco Mendenhall | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0 | 9.4 | hot |
| 61 | W Kentucky | 19 | Tyson Helton | 5.7 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 6.3 | |
| 62 | W Michigan | 17 | Tim Lester | 5.7 | .4 | .0 | 0 | 6.2 | |
| 99 | W Virginia | 19 | Neal Brown | 5.3 | -.4 | -1.4 | 1 | 4.4 | |
| 51 | Wake Forest | 14 | Dave Clawson | 6.6 | .4 | -.5 | 0 | 6.6 | |
| 24 | Washington | 20 | Jimmy Lake | 7.2 | -.9 | .9 | 1 | 8.3 | |
| 47 | Washington St. | 20 | Nick Rolovich | 6.8 | -.4 | -.5 | 1 | 6.7 | |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 15 | Paul Chryst | 8.7 | .4 | 1.4 | 0 | 10.5 | |
| 37 | Wyoming | 14 | Craig Bohl | 6.4 | .4 | .5 | 0 | 7.3 |
Savvy Game Line 