As we approach the 2026 football season, it’s time to take a look at coaching changes across the FBS and see how our Savvy Index grades those changes.
Today, we start with those teams that earned grades of D+ or less and the reasons for those grades.
Toledo
New Head Coach: Mike Jacobs
New Coaching Staff Rating: 10.0
New Coaching Staff Grade: D
Jason Candle left Toledo after 16 successful seasons. The fact that he traded Toledo for UConn is puzzling so perhaps he isn’t the brightest wick in the wax after all.
In his place, Toledo turned to Mike Jacobs whose body of coaching work includes these victims:
Wilmington College, Purdue (of GEORGIA), California (of PENNSYLVANIA, Notre Dame (of OHIO), Lenoir-Rhyne, and Mercer.
Where do I begin to point out the shortcomings of this hire?
How about I begin with his hiring of fellow unknown Cris Reisert who will be Jacob’s offensive coordinator. Like Jacobs, Reisert also has no FBS experience at the his new position and very little at the FCS level.
Toledo’s reputation as a football program deserves better.
If there is a silver lining in Toledo, it may be Jahmal Brown who built a terrific defense at Mercer, one that was in the top 25 of many FCS statistical categories. He doesn’t have FBS experience, but at least he maintained a steady presence at the top of FCS and that usually bodes well for coaches transitioning to FBS.
Brown may be the only bright spot in the program this year. Apart from him, it appears the Candle truly is out in Toledo.
Washington St.
New Head Coach: Kirby Moore
New Coaching Staff Rating: 10.0
New Coaching Staff Grade: D
Washington State fans will hate me for this low rating from Savvy Index because I had a similar low rating for former head coach Jimmy Rogers last year. In the end, Rogers spent one year at WSU and won two fewer games than Jake Dickert, so I suppose Savvy Index did pretty well.
Despite winning fewer games, Rogers somehow became the darling of Iowa State.
Not to be outdone, WSU set its sights on Kirby Moore despite the fact that Moore has no head coaching experience at any college. He served as offensive coordinator at Missouri in 2024 and 2025 with both seasons producing fewer points than his predecessor in 2023. Declining results at a lower position are odd components of being elevated to a head coach.
Moore’s offensive coordinator is Matt Miller who has no FBS exerience at his new position. He was co-OC at Boise State for one year [2025] which saw the Bronco offense produce eight fewer points than the year before. Of course, we can say that some of that drop off came from the departure of all American running back Ashton Jeanty but that explains little when we see that the passing attack resulted in Bronco quarterbacks throwing twice as many interceptions last year under Miller’s scheme than the year before.
Former Oregon State head coach Trent Bray takes over the defense. Bray had less than two seasons at Oregon State as HC and DC and was dismissed before he completed his second season.
All three of these new leaders at Washington State rate below average on Savvy Index. Although that would ordinarily signal a drop in winning percentage, Washington State’s schedule is one game easier than last year so fans should expect another season of borderline bowl eligibility.
Oklahoma St.
New Head Coach: Eric Morris
New Coaching Staff Rating: 11.0
New Coaching Staff Grade: D
This is what I am calling a “mirage” hire. It goes like this:
Eric Morris had three losing seasons at Incarnate Word before posting one season with 10 wins and landing the North Texas job. He struggled for two seasons at UNT before once again posting a single season with double-digit wins, enough to now become the head coach at Oklahoma State.
Yes, Oklahoma State is getting a coach who led two programs to double-digit wins but he also had more than twice as many seasons with unimpressive results. He is a mirage because those two good seasons make him look better that his actual accomplishments.
Oklahoma State fired long-time coach Mike Gundy long before the 2025 season ended. The Cowboy athletic department had plenty of time to find a new coach with an established record commensurate with the outstanding reputation that OSU has achieved. After all that time, the best they could come up with is a coach who has only two successful years out of seven?
Morris will revive a great offense but the Cowboys’ overall roster needs help and Morris doesn’t have a history of quickly getting programs to rise although that too will be a mirage because OSU’s first five games are against four struggling FBS teams and Murray State of the FCS. And, the Pokes better win because the next seven are all against established winners.
Sean Brophy is Morris’ choice as offensive coordinator and that may be a problem because Brophy has only coached college football for five season with only four being in FBS and NONE were at the coordinator level. That is a huge risk for any FBS team but especially in a place like Stillwater where fans rightfully expect to compete with the best.
Skyler Cassity takes over as defensive coordinator after one successful season at North Texas with Morris. The problem is that Cassity’s one season at North Texas was the ONLY FBS experience on his resume`. It was a good season but indeed, it was just one season.
All three of these coaches are known for one season while their over all body of work is not impressive.
As my mirage theory says: One good season doeth not a high expectation make.
Missouri St.
New Head Coach: Casey Woods
New Coaching Staff Rating: 11.5
New Coaching Staff Grade: D
Casey Woods takes over for the 82md ranked Missouri St program.
Woods has never been a HC at any level, never a coordinator at any level, and has only been a position coach.
According to my Savvy Index, moving from a position coach all the way to a head coach has seldom produced winning results
What will help Woods is new offensive coordinator Mark Cala. Although Cala has only been DC at UTEP, his one season brought the Minors’ points-per-game up nearly 25% in one season. He also many years of experience in the SEC as a position coach. The only question I have for the hiring of Cala is why did it take seven seasons for him to go from being just an offensive analyst to finally becoming a position coach?
Nonetheless, this rates as a better-than-average OC hire.
Jack Curtis is the Bears’ new defensive coordinator. Curtis has been coaching in college football defensive schemes for three decades and has stops at some SEC programs. He lacks experience as a defensive coordinator but decades of coaching makes him also a better-than-average hire for coach Woods.
Over all, the situation at Missouri State is a little hard to gauge. The head coach lacks experience but his top two assistants are better than average. I personally believe MSU will do better than Savvy Index projects because it is my experience that head coaches who attract good assistants generally achieve greater results than expected.
Mississippi
New Head Coach: Pete Golding
New Coaching Staff Rating: 12.0
New Coaching Staff Grade: D+
This one is a shocker!
I never imagined I would see Mississippi this low in new coach rating for the 2026 season, especially after Pete Golding took the program over after Lane Kiffin’s traumatic departure and produced fantastic results. So great was Golding’s success that enamored fans were heard asking, “Lane who?”
But after all of that, why would Savvy Index rate this coaching change so low?
The answer comes in Golding’s odd choice of coordinators. Ole Miss fans should expect that with their program in the prestigious SEC and a pretty deep run in the national playoff, their new coach would attract proven coordinators with long track records.
Instead, Golding hired of John David Baker as his offensive coordinator.
John David who?
Exactly.
Baker has just five seasons as a college coach and the majority of that was as a position coach. His short tenure as an OC came at non-power conference East Carolina might turn out to be okay but it certainly is not in keeping with past coordinators at prestigious Ole Miss especially when we notice that his schemes at ECU produced fewer points each year than the year before.
Even greater concerns arise on the defensive side.
Golding lost his defensive coordinator in February. Now we’re in April and he still has not hired a replacement.
Golding had plenty of time and the prestige of Mississippi’s football reputation and NIL money to bring in an outstanding DC. Instead, he settled for a two-year candidate from a lesser school who had declining results.
Savvy Index experience shows that head coaches who appear promising but are unable or unwilling to bring in commensurate coordinators fall short of expectations more times than not.
Ole Miss had a wonderful post-Kiffin experience in the playoffs but Savvy is projecting that will not continue through 2026.
UAB
New Head Coach: Alex Mortenson
New Coaching Staff Rating: 12.5
New Coaching Staff Grade: D+
If you’re still scratching your head over Savvy’s low rating of Pete Golding at Ole Miss, then take a look at what happened at UAB with former head coach Trent Dilfer.
The Blazers hired the former Super Bowl champion quarterback in 2023 amid great fanfare. Analysts raved but Savvy Index cautioned.
I felt awkward at the time in explaining Savvy’s reservations primarily because I have always been an ardent Dilfer fan.
But, Dilfer did what Golding has done at Mississippi. He hired coordinators with inadequate experience and Savvy said it wouldn’t go well in Birmingham and it also wouldn’t last long.
After losing 21 of 30 games, Dilfer was fired midway through last season.
UAB now has another shot at elevating its coaching situation and, once again, the Blazers have turned to another good guy with tons of experience. He has no head coaching experience at any level but he has three years as an understudy and offensive coordinator at UAB. He knows the school and he already has established recruiting credentials.
Unlike Dilfer, Mortenson went to the upper shelf to find a defensive coordinator. What he pulled down couldn’t have been better for UAB.
Todd Grantham takes over now on the defensive side and he brings 36 years of experience both in the FBS and NFL and he has vast experience as a DC. It is not an overstatement to say that UAB’s signing of Grantham is one of the best hires in college football for this hiring cycle.
Grantham needs to be that good because he’s starting with a defense that gave up more than 36 points per game.
As good as that is, there is a problem on the offensive side.
Mortenson has elected to be his own offensive coordinator. Savvy history shows that coaches who are new to head coaching and elect to be their own coordinator impede their own success. That problem is even more of an issue in these days of a stampeding transfer portal and blank-check NIL activity.
It is also important to note that all three of Mortenson’s seasons as OC at UAB have shown decreasing points from one year to the next while turnovers have increased. UAB was 125th in the nation last year for losing the ball.
It is clear that Mortenson’s offenses weren’t working then and it’s unlikely that taking on the HC job will make it easier to get that offense to work now.
Stanford
New Head Coach: Tavita Pritchard
New Coaching Staff Rating: 13.0
New Coaching Staff Grade: D+
Tavita Pritchard is the new head coach at Stanford. He is also a legend. He was the reserve quarterback that shocked America by leading 41-point underdog Stanford to the biggest upset in college football history over 2007’s top-ranked USC Trojans.
He was also offensive coordinator at Stanford under flailing head coach David Shaw who was desperate to salvage a falling empire. Pritchard was suppose to transform Stanford from a grunting ground grinder to a splashy air attack. That never happened and Shaw resigned from Stanford and Pritchard’s OC career was ended.
Even so, Stanford has brought him back as head coach, a position he has never filled.
Pritchard has hired Terry Hefferman to be his offensive coordinator. Like Pritchard, Hefferman will be taking a position he has never before held. When we consider that Hefferman has been an offensive position and line coach for 13 years, it seems odd this is his first crack at the OC position.
On the defensive side, Kris Richard has been hired as the coordinator and he is a slam-dunk great hire! Richard has 20 seasons as a defensive coach in the NFL with DC experience with the Seattle Seahawks.
The lack of experience at head coach and offensive coordinator is going to show in 2026. Stanford posted huge, negative trends to close the final six games of 2025. Although the defense will hold its own, turning around the rest of the program against a much tougher 2026 schedule doesn’t appear likely.
Savvy Game Line 