Predictions for all FBS games in week 14

I have all of this week’s predictions below, but first I want to comment on performance by the Savvy Index now that the 12-game regular season schedule is finished.

I will keep track of post-regular season results separately.

The Index beat betting lines throughout the season when it came to choosing winners and determining the over/under of betting lines. It did poorly in determining over/under on point spreads until a change two-thirds of the way through the season. After that change, Savvy beat betting lines in all three areas off prediction significance, choosing winners, determining over or under on point spreads, and determining over or under on total game points.

Here are the performance comparisons between Savvy and the betting lines:

PREDICTING GAME WINNERS:

Savvy Index:       621 – 206    75%

Betting lines:      469 – 185    72%

DETERMINING OVER/UNDER ON POINT SPREADS:

Savvy Index:      first two-thirds of the season:   26 games worse than betting lines

second two-thirds of season:     11 games better

DETERMINING OVER/UNDER ON TOTAL GAME POINTS:

(No changes made to this module in 2022)

Savvy Index:    89 games better than betting lines


  Savvy Index   2022    
  predictions week 14    
  last week   47-16 new vs bookies >> spreads +11     total pts +89    predicting winners + 3%   11/27/22
  season    621 – 206 wins losses game rating notes
17 Utah 9 3 31  
8 USC 11 1 33  
           
21 Fresno St. 8 4 25 Experts say BSU by 4.5
  Boise St. 9 3 24 but I agree with Savvy…FSU wins.
           
  Akron 2 9 24 Akron had a surprising and
  Buffalo 5 6 34 easy win last week.
           
19 LSU 9 3 24 I agree with Savvy that this will
2 Georgia 12 0 31 be closer than 16.5 set by bookies.
           
  Purdue 8 4 21 Is Brohm headed to
1 Michigan 12 0 34 Wisconsin?
           
10 Clemson 10 2 32  
  N Carolina 9 3 30  
           
  Toledo 7 5 27 Experts say
  Ohio 9 3 39 Toledo by four.
           
9 Kansas St. 9 3 28 TCU’s Sonny Dykes should
4 TCU 12 0 30 be coach of the year.
           
  Coastal Car 9 2 21 CCU’s offense is a mess
24 Troy 10 2 30 without Grayson McCall.
           
  UCF 9 3 25  
25 Tulane 10 2 30  
           
  N Texas 7 5 24 Experts say UTSA
15 UTSA 10 2 40 by nine but it will be more.
         

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