Oregon State 28, California 24
It may seem odd to some football fans that Oregon State is being favored by bookmakers to beat Cal this week even though they lost to the Bears last year by a whopping 44-7.
What’s changed?
Try this: In the space of just 48 hours last April, all five of Cal’s top running backs hit the portal. Five of the Bears’ top seven receivers also left along with two hefty starting linemen. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was spectacular last year in Berkeley and I’m sure he will be just as spectacular now that he is in Indiana.
But, why all of the departures and why did the majority of them come about AFTER Spring ball?
The answers appear to be the hiring of Bryan Harsin as California’s new offensive coordinator. Harsin has a reputation for being a bit of an inflexible hard-nose and perhaps too much of a contrast to past coordinators.
According to Sportsnaut.com and CBS Sports, “The first-year Bears’ offensive coordinator (Harsin) reportedly ‘hasn’t exactly been a culture fit’ with the locker room and some sources close to the Golden Bears said that Harsin’s presence has “accelerated the team’s unraveling” this spring.”
Cal’s offense ranked 74th (about average) for getting yardage last year. With a roster full of new faces, all of the skill positions drained, and disunity in the offensive ranks, it seems certain the Bear offense will be below average in producing yards and putting up points.
Cal must also rebuild on the other side of the ball. They were magnificent in bringing pressure but with new faces all over the defense, opposing quarterbacks can expect to have an easier time of it.
For Oregon State fans, those changes bring good news. The Beavers abound in skill players but the offensive line is questionable. Cal will need time to develop pressure and that should help the Beaver OL, at least in the first game of the season.
The bad news for Oregon State is that even with a better offensive line last season, the Beavers were down 31-0 at the half and had managed just 82 yards. In other words, they showed up unprepared.
That is not likely to be the case this week because the Oregon State offense has found a certified winner at quarterback. Maalik Murphy, who had once considered an offer from Oregon, has transferred to Oregon State from Duke after previously transferring to Duke from Texas. He didn’t want to be a Duck but then he became a Duke. Now he’s a Beaver. Somehow, it all makes sense.
Known as a strong leader with a magnificently strong arm, Murphy has taken over the starting role at Oregon State. If the OL can get the running backs going, Murphy will thrive in Corvallis.
The offensive line lost two starters and its line coach to the NFL. New line coach Mike Cavenaugh is returning to Corvallis after holding the same position from 2005-2014. He is a great hire by head coach Trent Bray but the work ahead of him is monumental. Cavanaugh admitted as much when he called it a “work in progress”.
Cal is going to start former Oregon commit and true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at quarterback. Although he is a dynamic four-star talent, the lack of skilled players around him is going to cast statistical shadows over his actual talent. So will his inexperience.
Oregon State’s defense was miserable when it came to pressuring quarterbacks last season but that is exactly what the Beavers need to do against Sagapolutele.
Oregon State must also come up with successful plays in critical situations. Last year against Cal, the Beavers only converted ONE of 12 third down attempts.
Both of these outfits have a lot to prove and that needs to happen now because time waits for no man — unless of course you’re Chuck Norris.
Savvy Index doesn’t see Oregon State as a big favorite, but it is awarding a four-point edge to the Beavers because they have greater unity, better skill players on offense, suffered much less attrition in the off-season, and they are playing at home.
#7 Oregon 45, #3 (FCS) Montana State 14
FanDuel Sportsbook shows Oregon as a 27.5 point favorite over Montana State.
My savvygameline.com system says Oregon will win by 31.
The Bobcats have been incredible winners in the FCS and nearly always a threat to win it all. In the past four seasons, they’ve made four playoff appearances, advanced to the semifinals three times and the national championship game twice.
Although Montana State is coming to Eugene with intent to upset the Ducks, they actually have more at stake next week when they play FCS title contender South Dakota State which is 60-8 since 2020.
Last year, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott won the Walter Payton Award as the top player in FCS but he has departed for the NFL.
In his place will be former Stanford and Bowling Green quarterback Justin Lamson. Last season, Lamson played in all 12 games for Stanford although he only started one. Nonetheless, he set the single-season school record for rushing touchdowns (8).
Passing was a different story however as Lamson completed just 51% of his passes with an interception rate that was twice the national average. All of that despite throwing for a mere 6.4 yards per attempt.
He will get help from a Montana State offensive line and running backs that appear ready to present an effective ground attack. Expect the Bobcats to stay on the ground even if they fall behind. MSU is a ground team and getting in rush reps against Oregon bolsters their chances against SDSU next week.
Although Montana State is a powerhouse in FCS, Lamson is not a threat through the air and that will enable Oregon to focus on stopping the MSU ground game.
To me, that is the most anticipated aspect of this game: Can Oregon prove it is elite in stopping the run or is this going to be another year of unacceptable lapses and over four yards per carry allowed to opponents?
My prediction system points to a multiple-possession lead at halftime, and some experimentation in the second half.
Savvy Game Line 