All but two teams have completed their 12 game seasons and we now are entering a terrific week of conference championship football.
There are nine conference championship games scheduled and most have ranked teams playing each other. Two of them have four teams ranked in the nation’s top five. I have predictions for all of the conference championship games but for now we will focus on the Big Ten championship matching Penn State against Oregon.
I have predictions for all of the conference championship games but for now we will focus on the Big Ten championship matching Penn State against Oregon.
#5 Penn State (11-1) vs #1 Oregon (12-0)
The Big Ten championship game will be held on Saturday in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will begin at 5pm PST and will likely be played in freezing weather.
This will be the first meeting between Penn State and Oregon since the 1995 Rose Bowl. Just seconds into that game, Penn State running back Ki’jana Carter raced for an 83 yard touchdown on the Nittany Lions’ opening drive. It was a cold day that ended in a loss for Oregon yet my young son and I enjoyed it thoroughly because it was his first Rose Bowl game.
In 2024, both Penn State and Oregon have had elite offenses but it is Penn State that has performed more consistently as a team from game to game and the Nittany Lion defense has clearly been better at stopping the run.
Penn State’s rush defense is in the top 20 for fewest yards allowed per carry, fewest touchdowns (ranked 2nd), and tackling ball carriers in their own backfields. Oregon is outside of the top 30 in all three elments.
On the offensive side, the Lions rely on two change up, 700 yard running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Besides averaging more than six yards per carry, Singleton has seven touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield. PSU likes to get the ball to Singleton in the flat because he is an agile 6’0” and 226 pound monster against isolated defenders.
Oregon’s ground game is founded on Jordan James who has over 1100 yards with support from Noah Whittington. James is sometimes a target out of the backfield but he has yet to score as a receiver.
I don’t anticipate James reaching 100 yards against the Nittany Lions because his average per game is 97 yards and because Penn State’s rush defense allows the same 97 yards per game.
Oregon has been spectacular lately in bringing defensive pressure but Penn State’s offensive line ranks among the nation’s best for protecting running backs and quarterbacks.
Oregon fans have become accustomed to having the best quarterback on the field as Dillon Gabriel has been among the top ten nationally in several passing statistics.
Penn State’s Drew Allar hasn’t received as much media hype but he has produced similar results.
Both are in the national top five for pass completion percentage. Allar is also in the top five for most yards per completion whereas Gabriel is 12th.
Gabriel is rated seventh nationally for passing efficiency while Allar is rated eighth.
Gabriel has run for seven touchdowns to Allar’s five but Allar averages more yards per attempt than Gabriel.
Both teams are 5-0 in games away from home.
Penn State is 0-1 against ranked teams. Oregon is 3-0 against ranked teams.
Penn State lost to Ohio State. Oregon defeated Ohio State.
Bookmakers have set the margin at 3.5 favoring Oregon.
My Savvygameline.com system is projecting Penn State will win 28-24.
In reviewing Savvy’s trendlines and metrics, I found myself agreeing with the prediction even though I didn’t want to. I wondered if I was crazy. You might wonder also. But, that simply cannot be because I have been consistently affirmed as being completely sane by every single one of my imaginary friends.
In every quarter of this season, Penn State has posted better performance trends than Oregon. In addition, the differences in those trends have grown in PSU’s favor in each and every quarter.
What intrigues me is the defensive momentum that Oregon accrued throughout November. If Oregon does not succumb to its unpredictable inconsistency and it brings that aggressive and effective defense, then the odds of Oregon winning the Big Ten title become much more favorable.
Predictions for all games this week were posted last Sunday and can be seen in the posts below.
For the regular season, my Savvy Index prediction system was 1% better than oddsmakers in predicting game winners, 16 games better in predicting point spreads, and 134 games better in projecting total game points.
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