Oregon has a century-long relationship with the Rose Bowl but this will be the first time the Ducks enter the site as a Big Ten team.
This game won’t have the charm of those yesteryear Rose Bowls but the sights and sounds of Pasadena will at least revive some epic memories.
I recall my last time at the Rose Bowl and how I meandered through the grove before the game and sighed with daydreams for the countless romantic hearts and initials that lovers had carved onto trees.
The serenity of that moment burst suddenly with the interruption of one question, “Jeeze, just how many people bring knives on their dates?”
The Ducks won’t need knives this week because Oregon football has advantages on both sides of the ball and that shows clearly in predictions being made experts across the country.
My Savvy Index prediction system is 244 – 59 in predicting winners and it has beaten the betting lines for both point spreads and total points the past two weeks.
#9 Oregon [3-0] at UCLA [1-2]
The Bruins have passed the ball about 60% of the time, not because they are good at it, but because they’ve been behind by big margins and were forced into it.
UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers was a phenom coming out of Corona Del Mar High School in California. In his high school career, he threw 128 touchdown passes and had only 15 intercepted.
In his three years at UCLA, he’s thrown 18 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and that includes this year’s three touchdown, four interception performance.
The problem is not that Garbers doesn’t have what it takes to pass the ball at an FBS level but rather that his offensive line is — well — offensive. That line ranks 111th for dealing with blitzes and it is also a primary suspect in why running backs can’t get to the second level.
The Bruins will open against Oregon with a commitment to rushing the football. They’re not good at that either, but Oregon hasn’t been all that good in stopping rushes and ranks in the bottom-third for getting to running backs behind the line of scrimmage.
UCLA will mount some drives but will likely be frustrated by a woeful inability to convert third downs.
It is likely Oregon will reach a two possession lead and that will force UCLA to the air once again and Oregon will reap some nice rewards because Garbers will be throwing into the strength of Oregon’s defense which is ranked seventh best in the nation for opponent completion percentage. Garbers is 110th in the nation for completion percentage (57.1%) so it is conceivable he will have more incompletions than completions.
A second problem for Garbers is that once his OL breaks down, he is subject to sacks because he is not a runner. He has tried 22 times to escape blitzes and lost 17 yards in the process. He has been less-effective throwing passes while scrambling and that has led to his interception problem.
Oregon has been less than average when it comes to running the football and UCLA has one of the nation’s top rush defenses so it is likely the Ducks will spend most of their time in the air.
America’s top passing quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, is completing 84% of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Unlike Garbers, Gabriel has some ability to run and has already scored two touchdowns on the ground.
I don’t anticipate Gabriel facing much pressure since UCLA is below average in both getting tackles for loss and in getting sacks.
UCLA ranks well below Oregon in both the commission of penalties (90th) and turnovers (113th). It has become my opinion that when a team has both of those as problems, there is likely a lack of emphasis on player disciplines.
UCLA has predominantly negative performance trends on my savvygameline.com prediction system while Oregon began heavily negative but has posted net-positive trends the past two weeks.
Prediction experts figure Oregon will win by four touchdowns with about 55.5 total points.
Savvygameline.com agrees mostly with the margin but not the total points as it projects Oregon will win 42-17.
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