Three of the Northwest FBS teams are in action this week and all three are expected to win. Two come from the PAC-2 Conference which thinks it has six teams and the other from the Big 10 Conference which actually has 18.
Whatever happened to the billions of dollars we poured into higher education that should have helped us to at least count the number of teams in our conference? It’s like Ellen DeGeneres said: “We use 10% of our brains. Imagine how much we could accomplish if we used the other 60%.”
Last week, the Savvy Index was 54-9 in predicting winners and it has predictions for all FBS games across the country, including the three northwest games.
Purdue (1-1) at Oregon State (2-1)
Boilermaker football set a record last week. Unfortunately, it is not the type of record Purdue fans prefer because their beloved ‘Makers lost in record breaking fashion at home in a 66-7 blowout to Notre Dame.
The loss was so bad that fans found less in common with the nickname “Boilermakers” who once stoked the fires of locomotives and more in common with one of the original Purdue nicknames, Cornfield Sailors.
The Purdue defense yielded 364 yards and six touchdowns just on the ground while permitting two Irish running backs to average 10 yards per touch. The defensive line looked confused and second level tackling was abysmal.
Expect Oregon State to rampage on the ground against Purdue’s 117th-ranked rush defense and also because Purdue is pretty good at getting to quarterbacks and is not likely to give OSU qb Gevani McCoy much time.
Last year, the Boilermakers were one of the worst defenses in America when it came to stopping third downs and those bad traits have been apparent this season as well.
In one stretch of the first half last week against Notre Dame, Purdue gave up four consecutive third down conversions while allowing nearly 11 yards per third down play. Those statistics become even more astounding once you know that Notre Dame’s offense is 91st in the nation for converting third downs. That opens a huge door of opportunity for Oregon State, an outfit that is in the top 15 for converting third downs.
On paper, the Purdue offense would seem to be pretty good. It averages 28 points per game and 5.1 yards per rush. It also has former Texas starting quarterback Hudson Card at the helm. However, most of the good offensive statistics came in the first game against FCS Indiana State. Against a national powerhouse last week, the offense was thwarted.
Card is a terrific quarterback who has all of the throws and can hit all of the targets if he’s given time. But last week, his offensive line collapsed and yielded nine negative pressure plays and its run blocking was so bad that running backs didn’t even reach 1.6 yards per carry.
Purdue’s offense converted just one third down in 12 attempts and the Boilermakers were forced to punt 10 times.
Oregon State’s defense won’t have the same success because defensive pressure by the Beavers has been surprisingly weak. Card will get the time he needs to pass.
Still, the Purdue offense is likely to struggle on third downs because the Boilermakers frustrate their drives with too many penalties. In just two games, Purdue has committed 18 penalties for 178 yards.
I’m not saying this will be an easy game for Oregon State but rather that there are abundant opportunities. Purdue has a legit Big Ten roster and once the offensive line comes together, this Boilermaker group will be tough to stop.
Both teams suffered lopsided losses last week to nationally ranked opponents. Which will rebound this week?
Betting lines generally favor Oregon State at home by about a touchdown with under 51 total points expected.
My prediction system agrees with the spread but insists the combined game points will be more.
Savvy Index says Oregon State will win 30-24.
Elsewhere in the Northwest . . .
Washington State‘s win over the Washington Huskies last week vaulted the Cougars over 25 spots upward and into Savvy Index Top 25. Only one other team in the nation has as many upward trends on Savvy and that is top-ranked Texas. That points to some kind of magic in The Palouse this year and that magic will continue this week.
The Cougars entertain another fast rising group in the San Jose State Spartans (3-0) under former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo who has recreated himself from once having been the master of the triple option to now being a technician of the spread-and-shred offense.
The Spartans have no running attack. Their three game rushing total is less than 200 yards and averages less than two yards per carry.
Instead, the Spartans will turn to sophomore quarterback Emmett Brown to come up with yardage through the air. Brown has a big passing arm that has already netted him nearly 1000 yards and nine touchdowns. That comes from 61% completion accuracy and an interception rate that is admirably below average.
On defense, SJSU is solid against the run and spectacular in pass disruptions. The Spartans rank third in the entire nation for picking off passes while Washington State has a higher-than-average rate for throwing interceptions.
WSU isn’t likely to worry about being intercepted because these Cougars can run the football. In fact, that is what they do through most of their games. When was the last time you heard of a Washington State team only passing the football about 40% of the time?
Not only will WSU win this game, it will do so with room to spare. Savvy Index predicts the Cougars will take this one 40-16.
On the other side of the state, the Washington Huskies play their fourth straight home game, this time against fellow Big Ten rival the Northwestern Wildcats.
Both of these programs were stellar and well above expectations last year but both are well below expectations in 2024.
Last week, Northwestern’s offensive line was surprisingly weak against FCS Eastern Illinois and allowed EIU more tackles for loss than the Wildcat defense got.
Northwestern is pretty good at running the ball but has yet to find potency through the air.
Washington is better at both and Savvy Index says the Huskies will prevail, 26-17.
Last week, my prediction system matched the betting lines for predicting game winners and beat them in both point spreads and total game points. It also named Texas as its #1 team two hours before the Associated Press did the same. On the season, the system is 198-41 in predicting games.
A full slate of predictions for this week’s games can be seen in the posts below.
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Savvy Game Line 