Upsets abound in Savvy Index predictions for week 4

 

 

Savvy Index

   2024    
  predictions week 4    
  Savvy prediction accuracy this season   09/15/24    
top 25 198 – 41 wins losses game values comments
  Purdue 1 1 24 Purdue is an outlier and hard to predict
  Oregon St. 2 1 30 but I think OSU takes care of business.
           
  San Jose St. 3 0 16 WSU has played tougher opposition
23 Washington St. 3 0 40 and is a national trend leader on Savvy.
           
  S Alabama 1 2 30 This game has a somewhat
  App State 2 1 34 high upset rating.
           
  Rice 1 2 17  
  Army 2 0 32  
           
  Arkansas 2 1 29 Upset
  Auburn 2 1 28  
           
FCS Portland St. 0 2 14 I feel confident that Savvy’s 72
  Boise St. 1 1 58 total points is spot on.
           
  Michigan St. 3 0 17 Not much question in my mind
  Boston Col 2 1 29 that BC won’t be stopped this week.
           
7 Kansas St. 3 0 32 If you haven’t watched KSU qb
  BYU 3 0 14 Avery Johnson, then you just have to see him play.
           
  Houston 1 2 26 Experts favor Cincinnati
  Cincinnati 2 1 22 by about a touchdown.
           
  N Carolina St. 2 1 20 Experts say only 48 points will be
13 Clemson 1 1 35 scored but it will be higher.
           
  Ball St. 1 1 20 Ball State has been awful.
  C Michigan 1 2 29 Central Michigan hasn’t played anyone decent.
           
  Virginia 2 1 24 Experts favor Virginia.
  Coastal Car 3 0 32  
           
  Baylor 2 1 34 Early betting lines say Colorado
  Colorado 2 1 14 by one but Baylor will win this game.
           
  UTEP 0 3 23 I doubt UTEP comes to
  Colorado St. 1 2 26 within 10 points of CSU.
           
  Florida Atl. 1 2 24 This is nearly a toss-up.
  Connecticut 1 2 27 Bettors like FAU.
           
FCS St. Francis PA 1 2 9 St. Francis beat Kent State
  E Michigan 2 1 39 two weeks ago so watch out Eagles.
           
FCS Monmouth 1 2 21  
  Florida Intl. 1 2 40  
           
  California 3 0 27 Well Cal, you wanted the ACC so
  Florida St. 0 3 21 get used to lots of trips cross country.
           
FCS N Iowa 2 1 13 Uh-oh… this feels to me like
  Hawai’i 1 2 30 an FCS over FBS upest.
           
  Charlotte 1 2 6 Indiana coach Cignetti is an instant
  Indiana 3 0 47 winner every place he goes.
           
  Arkansas St. 2 1 7  
20 Iowa St. 2 0 41  
           
  S Miss 1 2 28 I personally think SoMiss
  Jacksonville St. 0 3 30 upsets JSU.
           
  Ohio 2 1 15 I think Savvy is too thin with
  Kentucky 1 2 27 this 12 point spread.
           
  E Carolina 2 1 22 ECU is climbing. Liberty is
  Liberty 3 0 26 falling. High upset potential here.
           
  Tulane 1 2 34 Tulane has played well against
  Louisiana 2 0 19 a very good schedule.
           
  Georgia Tech 3 1 22  
11 Louisville 2 0 36  
           
  Tulsa 1 2 27  
  LA Tech 1 1 30  
           
  UCLA 1 1 20 LSU has been slipping badly
21 LSU 2 1 34 but UCLA is literally nose diving.
           
FCS Villanova 3 0 10 Villanova has a really good
  Maryland 2 1 35 defense that might change this result.
           
FCS C Conn St. 2 1 14 CCSU doesn’t have enough passing
  Massachusetts 0 3 34 attack to win this.
           
12 USC 2 0 32 Vegas sets the margin at 6.5
16 Michigan 2 1 20 but it will be much more.
           
  Duke 3 0 41  
  Middle Tenn 1 2 13  
           
25 Iowa 2 1 22 Minnesota has enough positive metrics
  Minnesota 2 1 19 on Savvy to suggest an upset win.
           
  Georgia So. 2 1 12  
5 Mississippi 3 0 48  
           
  Florida 1 2 26 Vegas favors the
  Mississippi St. 1 2 29 Gators.
           
  Vanderbilt 2 1 14 Vanderbilt appears to me that it is
15 Missouri 3 0 40 beginning to build a program.
           
18 Memphis 3 0 38 Vegas says Memphis by 10 but the
  Navy 2 0 14 Tigers will capsize Navy.
           
24 Illinois 3 0 20 Both teams are playing
  Nebraska 3 0 21 well above Savvy expectations.
           
FCS E Washington 1 2 14 EWU qb Kekoa Visperas completes 82% of
  Nevada 1 3 37 his passes and has 700 passing yards already.
           
  Fresno St. 2 1 50 I like New Mexico but Bronc
  New Mexico 0 3 13 doesn’t have enough horses yet.
           
  James Madison 2 0 23 JMU is under-performing big time.
  N Carolina 3 0 24 UNC gets this at home.
           
  Buffalo 2 1 12 Both of these teams are
  N Illinois 2 0 34 playing very well.
           
  Wyoming 0 3 21  
  N Texas 2 1 38  
           
  Miami Oh 0 2 6  
14 Notre Dame 2 1 37  
           
  Marshall 1 1 9 Marshall upset Notre Dame
8 Ohio St. 2 0 41 last year so keep an eye on this game.
           
3 Tennessee 3 0 33 Bookies say Tennessee by seven
10 Oklahoma 3 0 25 but that is way to low.
           
19 Utah 3 0 27 This is the first game in 2024 that needed to go
17 Oklahoma St. 3 0 28 through six sets of criteria before naming a winner.
           
  Kent St. 0 3 6  
11 Penn St. 2 0 53  
           
FCS Youngstown St. 1 2 17  
  Pittsburgh 3 0 45  
           
  New Mexico St. 1 2 17  
  Sam Houston 2 1 31  
           
  TCU 2 1 27 Bookies favor TCU
  SMU 2 1 29 by 2.5 points.
           
  Akron 1 2 3  
  S Carolina 2 1 47  
           
  Stanford 1 1 16 Oddsmakers say this will
  Syracuse 2 0 40 be Syracuse by 9.5.
           
  Utah St. 1 2 33 Both of these teams are
  Temple 0 3 23 better than I expected.
           
  LA Monroe 2 0 0 Savvy had Texas #1 two hours
1 Texas 3 0 49 before the AP poll published.
           
  Bowling Green 1 1 23 Experts say TAMU by 23 but
  Texas A&M 2 1 31 BGSU will trim that down.
           
  Arizona St. 3 0 38 Bookies say TTU will
  Texas Tech 2 1 24 win this by about 3.
           
FCS Florida A&M 2 1 13  
  Troy 0 3 38  
           
22 Miami Fl 3 0 37 Nuh-uh — I say USF wins
  USF 2 1 23 this game.
           
FCS Houston Christian 1 2 17 Houston Christian’s only win was
  UTSA 1 2 43 over Louisiana College with 836 students.
           
  Rutgers 2 0 25 Experts favor VaTech but
  Virginia Tech 2 1 24 Rutgers will win this.
           
  Northwestern 2 1 17 UW will be hungry to avenge that home
  Washington 2 1 26 loss last week to Wash. St.
           
  Toledo 3 0 33 Keep an eye on this one
  W Kentucky 2 1 24 because WKU has high upset metrics.
           
  Kansas 1 2 24 Very high upset rating
  W Virginia 1 2 30 on this game.
Savvy Index vs the betting lines          
  Point spreads: last week: Savvy six games better    
  Predicting winners:   same as bookmakers    
  Total game points:   Savvy three games better    
           

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