I found myself reminiscing about the good ol’ days when rivalry games in the Northwest were exciting conclusions to action-packed seasons and often held crucial PAC-12 positioning and postseason fortunes in the balance.
I lament the passing of those days but I’m not resentful of the masterminds who changed it all. Really. I’m not. To prove that, I’ve decided if I win $1,000,000, I will donate a quarter of it to them. I just think it’s the right thing to do.
Besides, I can live well on the remaining $999,999.75.
Savvy Index is 144-32 in predicting games this season.
Let’s take a look at the rivalry games this week and see how the teams match up.
Washington State (2-0) at #20 Washington (2-0).
The majority of analysts favor Washington. My Savvy Index prediction system agrees but with caution.
It’s important to note that neither WSU nor UW has played an upper level opponent so speaking of their accomplishments to-date comes with caution.
Pros for Washington State
Washington State’s critical need for a competitive offensive line may have been solved and the newly adjusted offensive scheme has been working well.
The Cougars have become one of the best in the nation in yards per rush attempt (7.2 ypc) and that held up last week against Texas Tech which has a history of being pretty good at stopping the rush.
With quarterback John Mateer, the Cougar passing attack averages more than 300 yards per game and ranks 13th nationally for number of touchdown passes.
Over all, the WSU offense averages more than nine yards per play which ranks second only to Mississippi.
Senior receiver Kyle Williams is catching the ball at better than 32 yards per reception.
Washington State has not committed a penalty this season.
The Cougar defense is in the top 25 for intercepting passes.
Washington State is one of the fastest up-trending teams on the Index which suggests success this week and the remainder of the season.
Cons for Washington State
Although the offensive line appears to be better, it allowed six tackles for loss to Texas Tech.
The WSU defense is near the bottom nationally when it comes to pressuring opposing quarterbacks. If it can’t pressure UW’s Will Rogers, then it’s going to be a long day in Seattle.
Washington State’s defense ranks 123rd for total yards allowed per game (470).
Both pro and con for Washington State
Pro: Quarterback John Mateer is the leading rusher for Washington State.
Con: Quarterback John Mateer is the leading rusher for Washington State.
He has carried the ball more often than anyone on the team and if he had 24 more yards, he would have more yards rushing than the top three running backs combined.
Coaches who let their dual-threat qbs run are wise. Those who let them run more than anyone else are reckless. That will be apparent against Washington because these ‘dawgs are good at chasing down prey.
Pros for Washington
As expected, quarterback Will Rogers is one of the most effective passers in the nation.
Running back Jonah Coleman has been unstoppable and averages more than eight yards per carry. Washington State’s rush defense ranks 99th in the nation so expect to see a lot of #1 getting loose downfield.
Washington has scored every time it has entered an opponent’s red zone.
The Husky defense ranks in the top 25 for total yards allowed per game as well as bringing pressure to opposing quarterbacks. It also has not allowed a single touchdown in the 2024 season either on the ground or through the air.
UW’s pass defense only permits opposing quarterbacks 45.8% pass completions.
Cons for Washington
There are 98 teams better than UW when it comes to forcing turnovers.
Washington is 89th nationally in penalties.
Prediction:
Both teams are in the top 15 for offensive potency (yards per play) but only Washington is in the top 15 for total defense. (Washington State ranks 89th).
Washington is in nearly everyone’s top 25 while WSU has yet to appear.
The Huskies have won six of the last seven between these two and they get this one at home.
My Savvy system says Washington will win 36-23 but with a somewhat high upset alert.
Oregon State (2-0) at #9 Oregon (2-0)
Remember when it was okay to call this game the Civil War?
That always amused me because I could never figure out how you could have a war and also be civil. “Excuse me sir, but I wish to terminate your existence with a projectile to your chest. Might you approve?”
If you like football oddities, you might like this: In reviewing ESPN game stats last weekend for Oregon State, I discovered that quarterback Gabarri Johnson accomplished something that I never thought was possible. According to ESPN’s box score, Johnson completed 99.3% of his one pass attempt.
Pros for Oregon State
Beaver backup quarterback is completing 99.3% of his passes.
Beaver starting quarterback Gevani McCoy has yet to throw an interception.
Oregon State controls the ground war better than 111 other FBS teams. They will continue to grind on the ground until someone stops them. Oregon’s rush defense ranks 110th so guess what the Beavers are going to do on Saturday?
Oregon State’s Jam Griffin is in the top 20 for most yards per game rushing.
OSU’s defense held San Diego State to under 200 yards total offense and Aztec superstar Marquez Cooper to under 60 yards rushing.
The Beavers are among the nation’s top 20 when it comes to controlling the ball.
OSU is in the top 25 for not turning the ball over.
Oregon State has a significant advantage in not committing penalties.
Cons for Oregon State
The Beaver pass rush has been weak.
Superstar receiver Darrius Clemons is still listed on the injury list.
Pros for Oregon:
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is second in the nation for completion percentage (83.1%) and has yet to throw an interception.
Duck defenders are only allowing opponents a 41.8% completion rate (5th nationally) and they lead the nation in sacks.
Cons for Oregon
The Ducks commit too many turnovers (ranked 92nd) and penalties (ranked 112th). It is my opinion those are player discipline issues which points the finger (no, not THAT finger!) at coaches.
Oregon running backs average less than 2.9 ypc (113th in the nation) behind an offensive line that has already given up six tackles for loss (102nd nationally).
The Ducks have fumbled three times in just two games. You can’t fumble at that rate and win national championships.
Oregon ranks 108th in defending the rush (5.1 ypc) and is similarly ineffective when it comes to dealing with screen passes.
Opposing teams have scored every time they’ve hit the red zone.
Defensive back Jahlil Florence and receiver Gary Bryant are probably not going to play.
Prediction:
The home team has won this rivalry game every year for the past four years and Oregon State is the home team this year.
Oregon State has made more of its talent than Oregon and the Beaver offensive system is working whereas Oregon has been stuffed on the ground.
Although Oregon State might be more deserving, Oregon has elite talent and is projected by my Savvy system to prevail 34-17.
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