Last week, my savvygameline.com prediction system was 85-10 in predicting winners.
Predictions for all 77 FBS games this week were posted earlier and can be seen below this post.
This week, all four northwest teams are in action and three of the four are expected to win.
The biggest margin of victory will be in Seattle where the Washington Huskies host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.
Eastern Michigan 1-0 at #23 Washington 1-0
Eastern Michigan beat UMass 28-14 last week but fell short of the prolific ground game it desired. The passing attack produced 241 yards and made receiver Oran Singleton’s (eight receptions; 89 yards; one touchdown) a player to watch.
Washington was strong in its opener as spectacular quarterback Will Rogers completed 76.9% of his passes with no interceptions in a 35-3 blow out of FCS centrist Weber State.
Washington’s pass defense held the Wildcats to just 11-of-32 passing and fewer than 100 yards.
However, despite being an FCS team, Weber State rushed for more than four yards per carry so the Husky front needs to show more bite. The UW also needs to prove it can pressure quarterbacks, something it didn’t do at all well in 2023. If EMU’s pressure can produce six sacks, then mighty Washington should be able to produce more than one.
Washington is favored by 26 points by the bookmakers with total combined points set at 47.
My savvygameline prediction Index says Washington will win 40-9.
Texas Tech 1-0 at Washington State 1-0
Texas Tech needed overtime last week to post a 52-51 win over Abilene Christian. The Red Raiders allowed 506 passing yards and came up 34 points short of the predicted spread.
TTU needed every bit of its 539 yards and five touchdowns through the air and all of Tahj Brooks 153 yards on the ground to avoid a massive upset.
In addition to allowing a grievous amount of air yardage, the Red Raiders could not make critical plays. They came up short on first downs, stopping critical fourth down conversions, and time of possession. In other words, Texas Tech was flashy but lacked the ability to master crucial plays.
Washington State is going to reap the benefits of those deficiencies with sophomore quarterback John Mateer showing a decent arm to go with a surprising effectiveness in running the ball. He only ran twice but he averaged 27 yards per run.
Before WSU’s game last week, I mentioned that the Cougars would run the ball well against Portland State, which they did, but for fans to not get excited because the PSU defense was susceptible to the rush.
This week against Texas Tech, we’ll learn a little more about the Cougar running game because the Texas Tech defense is pretty good against the rush.
Bookmakers favor Texas Tech by 1.5 points with a projected total of 65.5 combined points.
My prediction Index predicts TTU will prevail 39-28.
Oregon State 1-0 at San Diego State 1-0
Oregon State had a solid win over FCS Idaho State last week. The Beavers did it with two running backs combining for 315 rushing yards and four touchdowns and a passing game that didn’t get in the way.
The Beaver defense was as aggressive as expected as it posted two sacks and two fumble recoveries. An area of concern and surprise however is that it yielded over five yards per carry to an FCS opponent that is known for its passing and not much for its ground game.
This week’s opponent is extreme makeover San Diego State which is now led by former Kent State coaching hero Sean Lewis who is known for his explosive offenses.
The Aztecs raced for over 460 yards at better than six yards per play last week. That was against FCS weakling Texas A&M Commerce but the 31-point win was a breath of fresh air for SDSU fans who have longed for an offense not mired in head-banging, up-the-middle tedium.
True freshman and former three-star quarterback Danny O’Neill led the SDSU air attack by completing 22-of-33 passes for 214 yards and no interceptions.
San Diego State has a terrific rushing attack led by running back Marquez Cooper who played for Lewis at Kent State and carried the ball a head-wobbling 285 times for more than 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns in the 2022 season.
Cooper was at it again last week as he tallied 27 carries for more than 220 yards.
SDSU’s success on the ground coupled with OSU’s inability to stop Idaho State’s rushers suggests the Aztecs will push the ground attack until the Beavers prove they can stop it.
A critical problem for San Diego State is player discipline which has led the Aztecs to the very pinnacle of being the most penalized team in division one football.
Betting lines say Oregon State will win by 5.5 with 55 total points.
Savvy Index projects the Beavers will win 30-24.
Boise State 1-0 at #14 Oregon 1-0
Boise State is projected to be the best team in the Mountain West Conference and a contender for top-20 status. The Broncos have a heckuva coaching staff and plenty of offense.
BSU’s Asthon Jeanty leads the nation with rushing 267 yards and six touchdowns just on the ground in one game. He gathered all of that despite only touching the ball 20 times. His 13.35 yards-per-rush leads the West.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen added 280 yards on 22/31 passing.
What the blue Broncs didn’t have was defense.
Last week, BSU allowed 45 points in just three quarters. That was against Georgia Southern, a program that is not close to being nationally ranked. So inefficient was the Bronco defense that Georgia Southern was able to convert 12 (twelve!) third downs.
Oregon had an opposing problem.
The high octane, ballyhooed, lemon-and-lime offense only scored half as many points as expected.
The offensive line was a mess with persistent penalties that thwarted drives. Poor blocking was compounded by missed assignments from schemes that sometimes seemed confused. Those problems allowed Idaho to jam running lanes and hold Oregon’s talented backs to just 2.89 yards per rush.
UO Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was terrific as he completed 83.7% of his passes, broke a school record for most completions in a game (41), and emerged with 380 passing yards.
A questionable call by head coach Dan Lanning compounded Duck problems when Idaho came up with a stop on fourth-and-one, then scored over the top on the next play.
Boise State has four offensive skill players who are either out or questionable while Oregon has three defensive backs on the questionable list.
Oddsmakers cite Oregon as a 19 point favorite with 61 total points projected.
Savvygameline.com sees a tighter game with Oregon prevailing 38-28.
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