It’s a popular notion that once you are at the top, there is only one direction you can go and that is down.
I never had to worry about that but if I did, I wouldn’t think about dropping. I’d think about getting better. That is what the Oregon Ducks have in mind as they start the 2024 season nearly inseparable from Georgia, Florida State, and Ohio State in the top four of my Savvy Index prediction system.
The Ducks played in the first FBS title game but haven’t been back since. It hasn’t been a matter of them being ugly Ducklings but rather just not pretty enough to get in the picture instead of the ones holding the camera.
What has changed is that UO has the new accomplishment of having won 10 games in four of the past five seasons and, among the Big Ten top three, Oregon is the only program to return all three of its top coaches.
A few weeks ago, my system gave “A” grades to all three of those coaches.
Analysts suggest Oregon will not rise this year because the schedule is tougher than in 2023. They point to games against #2 Ohio State and #13 Michigan as reasons for their conclusions.
But, the Ducks played twice against #2 Washington last year and once against #11 Arizona so it seems to me the schedule is actually a little easier.
UO has the best quarterback situation in the Big Ten with Dillon Gabriel as the starter, former five-star Dante Moore his backup, and talented former four-star Austin Novosad a terrific third option.
Gabriel has proven himself in two prior programs with 14,865 career passing yards for 125 touchdowns while rushing for 1,060 yards and 26 more touchdowns. If those sound like outrageously good stats, just wait until he hits the field in Will Stein’s offense.
Michigan is likely to counter with sophomore athlete-quarterback Alex Orji. At 6’3″ and 236 pounds, Orji is a fantastic dual threat but his entire college career consists of throwing just one pass. His backup is Jack Tuttle who is on his third team and has never held onto the starting position.
Ohio State just named Kansas State transfer Will Howard as its starter behind center. Howard is a proven success but we can’t overlook that he lost a lot of playing time to a true freshman last year at mid-season nor when he repeatedly failed to get the Wildcat offense moving. Howard’s 2.8% interception rate last year is a concern because the national average was about 2.2%.
By comparison, Gabriel’s interception rate for the past two seasons was 1.6%.
At least a half-dozen colleges are claiming to have the best set of receivers in America and a good case can be made for all of them.
Oregon is one of them. Tez Johnson was just named a second team preseason All American. Former Alabama receiver Traeshon Holden is returning and will be paired with wow-factor Evan Stewart coming in from Texas A&M.
It’s clear that Gabriel is going to see lots of lemon-and-lime downfield.
The Ducks also have four tight ends back from last year. Terrence Ferguson led the group with 42 receptions and over 400 yards while averaging one touchdown for every seven receptions.
Patrick Herbert is a beast a 6’5″, 255 pounds and although injuries have limited his number of receptions, he led all UO tight ends last year in yards-per-reception. He has already been projected as a second round NFL draft prospect.
With Bucky Irving off to the NFL, junior running back Jordan James is going to get the ball 15-20 times per game. James wasn’t the go-to back last year but he had more yards-per-carry than Irving.
Noah Whittington has returned after an injury cost him half of last year. The former Western Kentucky star has a history of gaining more than seven yards-per-carry.
Those two will be backed by FCS transfer Jay Harris and former four-star Notre Dame commit Jaden Limar.
The offensive line is loaded with experience, size, and talent to go with more than enough depth. Expect Ajani Cornelius from Rhode Island, Matthew Bedford from Indiana, Iapani Laloulu, Marcus Harper, and Josh Connerly Jr. to be the primary leaders.
Oregon’s line led the nation in 2023 for fewest sacks allowed per game. It was third nationally in rush blocking and also third for not giving up tackles for loss. My savvygameline.com system rates the 2024 UO OL among the top five of the nation.
There are some concerns defensively.
For example: Among 133 FBS teams last season, Oregon’s run defense ranked 131st. That must change.
Oregon was only a little better than average in bringing pressure and intercepting passes which are not critically weak but do bear watching. It is hoped that pressure will improve with the additions of Derrick Harmon (Michigan State) and Jamaree Caldwell (Houston).
Despite not being near the top in those categories, the Duck defense still managed to finish in the top 10 for fewest points allowed per game.
Linebacking will be strong with the return of 72-tackle Jeffrey Bassa and rising star Matayo Uiagalelei. Iowa transfer Jestin Jacobs was a Hawkeye fan favorite because of his aggression and non-stop engine. Iowa columnists viewed him as NFL-ready when he was yet a sophomore.
The secondary is founded on safety Tysheem Johnson and the addition of transfers such as Oklahoma State’s Jabbar Muhammad and former UTSA star Kam Alexander.
The secondary group is projected to be much like last season; better than average but not better than everyone else.
If I pushed the button on my savvygameline.com prediction system to predict the entire season today, it would favor Oregon for 11.5 wins with a split among Michigan and Ohio State and the Ducks are seen as nearly a lock to make the 12 team national playoff.
If this defense improves against the run, Oregon will be a strong contender for the national championship.
Savvy Game Line 