Don’t you love this time of year when we speculate about the coming fortunes of our college football favorites?
With 31 head coaching changes and a transfer portal that whirs out of control, it might seem impossible to predict the coming season. Although players keep moving, my prediction system (savvygameline.com) remains the same and it should lead us to some good assessments for the coming season.
I will be focusing on what I have come to call “The Northwest Four” — or NW4 — which includes Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State.
To get things started, let’s take a look at coaching staffs for each, discuss newly hired coaches, and give grades for each.
Washington Huskies
Coaching change grade: A
Ranking among 31 new hires: 6th
Jedd Fisch did an excellent job at Arizona as he took one of the worst programs in America to the top 25 rankings in just three seasons. But, can he replace the phenomenal success of former former coach Kalen DeBoer? In short: Can de-Fisch replace DeBoer.
My system gives an “A” grade to Washington for its hiring of Jedd Fisch but hedges on expectations for the Huskies to return to the national title game. At this time, a top 10 finish seems probable.
Fisch receives high grades because he successfully retained Brennan Carroll (son of Pete Carrol) as his offensive coordinator and he enticed Stephen Belchick (son of Bill Belchick) to Seattle to be his defensive coordinator.
All three have extensive NFL experience which often translates well to the college game.
Not all coaches who transition from the professional ranks to college programs are successful as we saw recently with Herm Edwards at ASU. Edwards’ tenure at ASU went precisely as my Savvy system predicted. He started fast and finished in a smoking tailspin, the debris of which is still smoldering in Phoenix.
But, these three at Washington have proven records that will keep the Huskies strong in 2024.
Long term, the question I have for the Huskies is how the program will do after athletic director Troy Dannen departed. Dannen told Husky fans that UW was his last stop. FIve months later, he left for Nebraska and was replaced by Pat Chun whose entire A.D. experience has been at Florida Atlantic and Washington State.
Oregon State
Coaching change grade: C
Ranking among 31 new hires: 21st
It might seem difficult to predict the success of a new head coach when that coach has no experience at the position.
However, there are clues we can look at and one of those is the assessment of who he hires as coordinators.
OSU’s new head coach Trent Bray was elevated from defensive coordinator but his head coaching experience consists of a few weeks as interim head coach at Nebraska where he did not head coach any games.
Bray has brought Ryan Gunderson to Oregon State to be his offensive coordinator and that is a concern because Gunderson has no experience at that position and, as a position coach, he has only coached quarterbacks.
When it comes to defensive coordinators, Bray hit a home run with the hiring of Keith Heyward whose metrics in my system are off the charts. The Beaver defense will be as inspiring in the 2024 season as it was in the 2024 Spring Showcase.
If rating Oregon State’s new coaches was only a matter of rating Bray and Gunderson, the grade would be, at best, a “D”.
When you put Heyward into the group, the grade rises to a solid “C”.
One of the biggest problems for the OSU offense is the loss of Jim Michalczik, the miracle-working offensive line coach who accompanied former coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State.
There may not be a critical drop in line effectiveness because Kyle Devan has come from the NFL to Corvallis and he has plenty of successful experience and a tireless work ethic.
If the offense develops better than expected, the Beavers should get to eight give or take bowl results.
I noticed that some football commentators criticized Bray’s handling of the Spring game and suggested it wasn’t flashy enough to excite fans and didn’t compare to down-state rival Oregon.
Although those commentators are the experts, I find myself looking for evidence that Oregon State has ever tried to out-glitz Oregon at anything. For that matter, is there anyone anywhere who would even try?
I’m not sure that the side-shows of Spring games are important. Yes, you perhaps can draw fans but Bray is a new coach in a tumultuous situation so it’s my opinion that perhaps the last thing his players needed was more distraction. He has a new system to install and I agree with his choice to spend his time focused on the field and not dodging paratroopers falling from the sky.
It reminds me of the megachurch worship leader who was accompanied by a fog machine, laser rays, and disco balls while admonishing his congregants to focus on Jesus.
Washington State
no coaching changes
Grade for current staff: C –
Washington State’s Jake Dickert returns for his third year as head coach. He has retained both of his coordinators from last season despite the Cougars losing seven of their last eight games.
His record in that time is 15-16.
Losing seven of the last eight is bad enough but it is perhaps more concerning that he has won fewer conference games in each of his three seasons as HC.
Those factors push his grade to “C-” and adds a clockwise turn of the hot seat knob.
What may bail Dickert out in 2024 is an easier schedule to go with six of his 11 opponents having coaching changes and half of those rating below average.
In other words, although he’s taken some knocks, he can still say, “Yeah, but you should see the other guy.”
Dickert may be vulnerable now that athletic director Patrick Chun has departed. It was Chun who had promoted Dickert to head coach and supported him through the decline of the past three seasons.
Will a new athletic director do the same?
Oregon
no coaching changes
Grade for current staff: A +
In the modern era of college football, the Ducks have always had the talent but they haven’t always had the coaches.
Dan Lanning has solved that problem and Oregon is a strong challenger for the national championship.
When Lanning was hired by Oregon two years ago, his credentials rated an “A” grade in my system even though he had never been a head coach. That rating was validated when he hired Kenny Dillingham from Florida State as his offensive coordinator, Tosh Lupoi for the defense, and the Ducks finished 10-3.
I said at the time of his hiring that Tosh Lupoi was probably the most-effective defensive coordinator in the game.
When Dillingham left for Arizona State, Lanning hired Will Stein from UTSA. I had been following Stein’s offense at UTSA and had come to the conclusion that his system is simply unstoppable as is his clever manipulation of it. That system attracts quarterbacks like a silver lure draws fish on a sunny day.
Lanning may not yet be the best head coach in America, but it’s my opinion he has the best coordinators and, as a group, they are the strongest coaching staff in American college football.
The schedule this year is filled with landmines (at Ohio State; at Michigan; at Wisconsin; home vs Washington), but Oregon has the talent and the coaches to contend with all of them.
Evaluating other northwest coaching changes:
Jonathan Smith
from: Oregon State
to: Michigan State
Coaching change grade: A
Ranking among 31 new hires: 4th
Jonathan Smith is an “A” level coach and he brought his offensive line coach, offensive coordinator, and dynamic quarterback {Aiden Chiles) with him to East Lansing. Those factors make this a strong “A” grade and the fourth-best coaching change in division 1.
Smith hired Joe Rossi as his defensive coordinator. While not a spectacular hire, Rossi is solid and knows Big Ten offenses and the recruiting geography well.
Kalen DeBoer
from: Washington
to: Alabama
Coaching change grade: B
Ranking among 31 new hires: 16th
Since I recently wrote about this coaching change, I won’t include details here other than to summarize that DeBoer as an “A” coach but this coaching change is diminished because of the problems he had in finding elite coordinators.
Nationally
The best off-season coaching move was made by Boston College with its hiring of Bill O’Brien and his staff.
That was one of three coaching changes for which my Savvy system gave “A+” grades.
The other two were Houston with its hiring of Willie Fritz from Tulane and in a great surprise to me, Georgia State with its panicked hiring of Del McGee and the amazing job he did in filling his staff.
The worst hire in America was Syracuse which is the only program that rated below “D”. The Orangemen really need to review the erosion of their athletic programs since 2016 under A.D. John Wildhack.
Another program that started above Syracuse but is declining and may soon be graded as an “F” is Nevada where the head coach and defensive coordinator combine for one year of experience at their positions and offensive coordinator Matt Lubick has been so ill that he had to Zoom-coach the Spring game from the hospital.
[update 7-2-2024] A new “worst” coaching hire is now Utah State. The Aggies are expected to fire head coach Blake Anderson and they have made Nate Dreiling their interim head coach. If Dreiling is elevated to permanent head coach, Utah State will earn an “F” grade in my Savvy system. I have predicted that Scott Frost will take over at USU and, if so, that “F” grade will move up to about “C-“.
Savvy Game Line 