College football predictions for week 5

  Savvy Index   2023    
09/27/23 rankings
week 5 09/23/23  
  Savvy last week:            51 – 16
     
top 25 This season:       264 – 57
wins losses game values
4 Washington 4 0 38
UW’s average spread is 33 points but
  Arizona 3 1 18 experts project just an 18 pt spread.
         
  Arizona St. 1 3 21 ASU just has too many
  California 2 2 31 qbs banged up.
         
7 USC 4 0 38 Deion and the Buffs are going
  Colorado 3 1 30 to rebound and make a game of this.
         
22 Utah 4 0 21 Cam Rising may play but how
17 Oregon St. 3 1 27 effective will he be after long absence?
         
6 Oregon 4 0 46 Oddmsakers say
  Stanford 1 3 15 Oregon by 26.
         
  Buffalo 0 4 27 Wow, this is crazy. For the first time in years
  Akron 1 3 32 Savvy & betting lines both favor Akron.
         
  Texas A&M 3 1 29 Upset prediction.
  Arkansas 2 2 30  
         
5 Georgia 4 0 28  
  Auburn 3 1 23  
         
  Virginia 0 4 24 Savvy-rated as the worst game
  Boston Col 1 3 35 in American football this week.
         
  Cincinnati 2 2 24  
  BYU 3 1 27  
         
  E Michigan 2 2 27 I tend to agree with Vegas
  C Michigan 2 2 20 that CMU will win this.
         
FCS Utah Tech 0 0 10 UTU (formerly Dixie State) qbs have thrown
  Colorado St. 1 2 52 10 interceptions in just 163 pass attempts.
         
  Utah St. 1 3 37 Bookies say 51 total points but… it
  Connecticut 0 4 23 won’t be THAT cold in CT this week.
         
14 Notre Dame 4 1 26  
  Duke 4 0 24  
         
  Nevada 0 4 8  
11 Fresno St. 4 0 50  
         
  Coastal Car 2 2 26 I think the final margin will
  Georgia So. 3 1 27 be GaSo by 12 or more.
         
  Troy 2 2 22  
  Georgia St. 4 0 34  
         
  Bowling Green 1 3 24  
  Georgia Tech 2 2 33  
         
  Michigan St. 2 2 13 Iowa loses ONE game — to the second best
19 Iowa 3 1 30 team in FBS— an Hawkeyes are removed from the top 25.
         
  S Alabama 2 2 22 Careful on this one. JMU has
  James Madison 4 0 33 played an easier schedule.
         
  Miami Oh 3 1 37 Not surprised Mi(O) is 3-1. Savvy pre-
  Kent St. 1 3 19 season said this was borderline bowl team.
         
  Florida 3 1 18 Florida is ranked by the coaches
  Kentucky 4 0 30 but underdog to unranked Kentucky.
         
  App State 2 2 29  
  LA Monroe 2 1 24  
         
  Old Dominion 2 2 11 Despite being 3-0, Marshall
  Marshall 3 0 36 doesn’t look good to me.
         
  Indiana 2 2 10  
24 Maryland 4 0 38  
         
  Arkansas St. 2 2 29 Vegas Says ASU will
  Massachusetts 1 4 30 win this.
         
  Boise St. 2 2 25  
  Memphis 3 1 34  
         
  Louisiana 3 1 26  
  Minnesota 2 2 30  
         
  LSU 3 1 28  
  Mississippi 3 1 35  
         
18 Alabama 3 1 30  
  Mississippi St. 2 2 22  
         
  USF 2 2 27 USF will win this despite experts
  Navy 1 2 23 who favor Navy.
         
1 Michigan 4 0 33 Bookies say Michigan bu
  Nebraska 2 2 10 just 18. Really?
         
20 Louisville 4 0 33 I don’t see UL winning this but
  N Carolina St. 3 1 24 Savvy and Vegas do.
         
2 Penn St. 4 0 41 Oddsmakers say Penn St.
  Northwestern 2 2 9 by just 26.
         
FCS Abilene Christian 0 0 29 I think N Texas shafted its own bad self
  N Texas 1 2 37 when it fired Seth Litrell.
         
  Iowa St. 2 2 12  
10 Oklahoma 4 0 38  
         
  Illinois 2 2 26 Experts say PU by one. PU is
  Purdue 1 3 22 coming on but not enough yet to beat IU.
         
  E Carolina 1 3 24  
  Rice 2 2 32  
         
FCS Wagner 0 2 0  
  Rutgers 3 1 52  
         
  Jacksonville St. 3 1 29 I don’t buy oddsmakers 5.5 spread.
  Sam Houston 0 3 8 JSU is playing well. SHU—not so much.
         
  San Diego St. 2 3 15  
12 Air Force 4 0 34  
         
  Charlotte 1 3 16  
  SMU 2 2 34  
         
  Texas St. 3 1 36 Texas State has already climbed from 119
  S Miss 1 3 24 to 79 on Savvy after just 4 games.
         
  Clemson 2 2 25 Upset — Savvy favors SU
  Syracuse 4 0 33 despite Vegas favoring CU.
         
  W Virginia 3 1 23 WVU has been surprisingly good…. not
  TCU 3 1 30 ONE negative trend on Savvy so far.
         
  S Carolina 2 2 22 Savvy has some high upset
  Tennessee 3 1 33 alerts on this game.
         
  Kansas 4 0 22 Kansas will control the ball
9 Texas 4 0 32 and may get a big upset win.
         
  Houston 2 2 30 TexTech hasn’t beaten an FBS all
  Texas Tech 1 3 26 year but bookies favor TTU by 10.
         
  N Illinois 1 3 13  
  Toledo 3 1 39  
         
  UAB 1 3 16 Looks like my preseason projection
  Tulane 3 1 38 that nice guy Dilfer would lag has come true.
         
  Temple 2 2 22  
  Tulsa 2 2 30  
         
  Baylor 1 3 11 Wow…. Savvy says 34 pt margin
23 UCF 3 1 44 while bookies say 11.
         
  Hawai’i 2 3 21  
  UNLV 3 1 39  
         
  LA Tech 2 3 29 Bookies favor UTEP.
  UTEP 1 4 22 I don’t mind but I also don’t agree.
         
  Missouri 4 0 37 Mizz is nationally ranked now?
  Vanderbilt 2 3 22 WHAT are THEY thinking?
         
  Pittsburgh 1 3 24 No, no, no! Virginia Tech is going to
  Virginia Tech 1 3 18 win this despite Savvy & bookies.
         
  Middle Tenn 1 3 18  
  W Kentucky 2 2 39  
         
  Ball St. 1 3 25  
  W Michigan 1 3 32  
         
  New Mexico 2 2 18 Forty-one total game points projected
  Wyoming 3 1 36 by experts is MUCH too low.
  2023 Savvy Index vs the betting lines        
  Predicting winners: Savvy   2% better    
  Point spreads: Savvy   2 games      worse    
  Total game points: Savvy   26 games better    
this season

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