Predictions for all FBS games in week 5


The last time Mississippi won the SEC title, John F. Kennedy was president.  Winning won’t happen this year either as #15 Ole Miss (3-0) travels to #1 Alabama (4-0) for a matchup between two teams that average 100 combined points.  Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Alabama will get more of them in a 10-point win.

Second ranked Georgia (4-0) will have no problem in showing #17 Arkansas (4-0) what it takes to be ranked with the big boys as the Bulldogs cruise to a 34-14 win.  Georgia only gives up 5.8 ppg so permitting Arkansas to have 14 is a gracious bit of southern hospitality.

Third ranked Notre Dame (4-0) may have a problem in its battle with #7 Cincinnati (3-0).  Fighting Irish quarterback Jack Coan went down with an ankle injury last Saturday and may not play this week.  Notre Dame is currently a 30-27 favorite in a game that should exceed the 51.0 over/under established in betting lines.

Iowa takes its #4 ranking to #25 Maryland for a battle of 4-0 Big Ten leaders.  Although Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is a fantastic passer, the Terrapin offensive line won’t be able to clear any pathways for running backs and that will enable Iowa — long known as Cornerback U — to stifle Maryland receivers.  Iowa is favored 28-21.

The only other game matching ranked teams in our system shows #25 LSU (3-1) as a one touchdown favorite over #23 Auburn (3-1).

Going against the oddsmakers, our Index is predicting the following winners:   Old Dominion over UTEP, Liberty over UAB,  Southern Miss over Rice, Eastern Michigan over Northern Illinois, Central Michigan over Miami of Ohio, Arkansas State over Georgia Southern, and Oregon State over Washington.

Predictions for all games involving FBS teams can be seen below.

Last week, the Savvy system was 78% in predicting winners compared to 77% by betting lines and now stands at 81% for the season compared to 75% by the betting lines. For the second week in a row, the Savvy system was nine games better in predicting over/unders.  The Index was 3-5 in predicting upsets last week but is about even over the course of the season.

THIS WEEK IN THE PAC 12 . . .

Oregon (4-0) continued to win but also continued to drop in the Savvy rankings after another poor defensive showing.  This week, the #8 Ducks are 33-24 favorites over unranked Stanford (2-2).  If the projected nine-point spread holds, it will be the narrowest Oregon win over Stanford since 2015.

Oregon State (3-1) is projected by America’s gamblers to lose to Washington (2-2) but the Savvy Index sees a 28-27 win for the Beavers at home.  This one will come down to the ground game where the Beavers will control things with a rushing attack that is 12th in the nation against Washington’s 93rd ranked yards-per-rush defense.  The Huskies won’t be able to counter that advantage since UW is 96th-ranked for rushing the football and OSU is 24th for stopping it.

USC (2-2) is out of the rankings and may also be out of luck in Boulder, Colorado as the dazed Trojans try to regroup from a loss to Oregon State last week. Colorado (1-3) can’t beat anyone through the air but that might actually be an advantage because USC is giving up nearly five yards per carry (95th) to opposing running backs.  USC plays above expectations one week and under the next.  This is “up” week so we’ll call if for Troy, 31-17.

Washington State (1-3) visits California (1-3) to finally answer the question: which quarterback can throw the most interceptions. We’re rooting for Cal’s Chase Garbers because he’s been around for so long, but it’s hard to not also root for WSU’s trio of Jayden De Laura, Jarrett Guarantano, or Cammon Cooper. Regardless of which one earns the crown, this group has already thrown 10 interceptions in less than one-third of a season so we know we can count on seeing an abundance of entertaining futility!

We’ll also finally see an end to the notion that Arizona State (3-1) was ever a PAC-12 South contender as the Sun Devils take their undisciplined selves to Los Angeles for a loss to #24 UCLA (3-1).  It would be nice to see the ASU coaches take some responsibility for team lapses that have the Sun Devils 2nd in the nation for most number of penalties and 95th in the nation for turnovers, but maybe that only happens with contenders and not so much with pretenders.  UCLA will have no problem winning this although I think Savvy (4 points) and Vegas (3.5 points) have the margins much too small.

Arizona and Utah are idle.

Here are all of our Savvy Index projections for this week:


  Savvy Index   2021    
  predictions week 5    
   last week:      52-15       78% Oct 2    
top 25      season:       254-58         81%
wins losses prediction notes
  Washington St. 1 3 27 WSU has tried four qbs and so far,
  California 1 3 30 none have looked good.
   
  USC 2 2 31 USC is 95th in stopping the rush.
  Colorado 1 3 17 Colorado will run because it can’t pass.
   
  Washington 2 2 27 Vegas says UW by two but
  Oregon St. 3 1 28 UW can’t rush and OSU can.
   
8 Oregon 4 0 33 Oregon is tops in FBS in turnover margin
  Stanford 2 2 24 but 10th worst for penalty yards.
   
  Arizona St. 3 1 27 Personally, I think ASU will cave and
24 UCLA 3 1 31 UCLA will win by 12+.
   
  Ohio 0 4 34 Can’t these two just phone it in
  Akron 1 3 24 so we don’t have to see it?
   
15 Mississippi 3 0 28 Ole Miss is on a hot streak so this
1 Alabama 4 0 38 has asomewhat high upset possibility.
   
  Army 4 0 31 Ball State has yet to post even
  Ball St. 1 3 23 one positive trend on Savvy.
   
  Nevada 2 1 17 Boise should win this pretty easily
  Boise St. 2 2 33 but must find a rush attack.
   
  W Michigan 3 1 28 The Buffalo defense continues
  Buffalo 2 2 27 to erode.
   
  Boston Col 4 0 20 Outside of last week’s win at Mizzou,
21 Clemson 2 2 31 BC has only played bottom dwellers.
   
  LA Monroe 2 1 12 Like we said in the preaseason…
13 Coastal Car 4 0 41 keep an eye on ULM underTerry Bowden.
   
  Tulane 1 3 36 Finally we agree with oddsmakers
  E Carolina 2 2 30 on Tulane.
   
  Florida Intl. 1 3 21  
  Florida Atl. 2 2 35  
   
  Syracuse 3 1 28 Oddsmakers like FSU but Savvy trend
  Florida St. 0 4 27 lines say otherwise.
   
17 Arkansas 4 0 14 Georgia gives up just
2 Georgia 4 0 34 5.8 points per game.
   
  Arkansas St. 1 3 32 Upset. Odds favor GSU by 2
  Georgia So. 1 3 28 under new head coach.
   
  App State 3 1 35 Georgia State has played a
  Georgia St. 1 3 17 really tough schedule.
   
  Pittsburgh 3 1 35 Very high upset alert on this one.
  Georgia Tech 2 2 27 GaTech just doesn’t make mistakes.
   
  Fresno St. 4 1 35 FSU will win this but should not
  Hawai’i 2 3 27 be ranked in the top 25.
   
  Charlotte 3 1 24 Charlotte just hasn’t played
  Illinois 1 4 30 anybody important so far.
   
  Kansas 1 3 10 Iowa State is 4th ranked for giving up
  Iowa St. 2 2 43 the fewest yards per rush (2.1).
   
5 Oklahoma 4 0 32 Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma
  Kansas St. 3 1 21 in BOTH of the past two years.
   
  Bowling Green 2 2 17 Savvy says 14. Vegas says 17.
  Kent St. 1 3 31 I think 10 or less.
   
11 Florida 3 1 30 Florida’s rush attack is #1 in
  Kentucky 4 0 17 FBS at 7.5 ypc.
   
23 Auburn 3 1 25 Bo Nix is thriving under Harsin at
25 LSU 3 1 31 Auburn but not enough to beat LSU.
   
4 Iowa 4 0 28 Terrapins’ Tagovailoa hits 75% of his passes
25 Maryland 4 0 21 but UM run blocking is horrible.
   
  Toledo 2 2 38 UMass gets back a bunch of injured players
  Massachusetts 1 3 20 and will come closer than Vegas’ 26 pt spread.
   
  Virginia 2 2 24 As of Monday, Miami qb
  Miami Fl 2 2 34 D’Eriq King still not cleared to play.
   
  C Michigan 2 2 28 Oddsmakers say Miami will win by 1.
  Miami Oh 1 3 26  
   
  W Kentucky 1 2 21  
10 Michigan St. 4 0 38  
   
  Marshall 2 2 35 MTSU starting qb Bailey Hockman
  Middle Tenn 1 3 24 has left the team.
   
  Tennessee 2 2 28 Hendon Hooker has been fantastic
  Missouri 2 2 32 for Tennessee but he may not play vs Mizzou.
   
  UCF 2 1 41 UCF struggled early in 2021 but is
  Navy 0 3 17 beginning to develop now.
   
  Northwestern 2 2 22 I agree more with betting lines
  Nebraska 2 3 24 that set the spread at over 10.
   
  Air Force 3 1 33  
  New Mexico 2 2 17  
   
  Duke 3 1 24 Duke is playing really well but
  N Carolina 2 2 40 not enough to stay with UNC.
   
  LA Tech 2 2 20  
  N Carolina St. 3 1 38  
   
  E Michigan 3 1 34 Upset… EMU’s only loss has been
  N Illinois 2 2 27 to Wisconsin. NIll can’t play defense.
   
7 Cincinnati 3 0 27 …but Notre Dame may be
3 Notre Dame 4 0 30 without qb Jack Coan.
   
  Baylor 4 0 24 Baylor beat Iowa State last week.
16 Oklahoma St. 4 0 31 OSU has wins over Boise St. & Kansas St.
   
  Indiana 2 2 24 Indiana has yet to hold an FBS
6 Penn St. 4 0 30 opponent under 30 points.
   
  Minnesota 2 2 23 Minnesota lost to 101st-ranked
  Purdue 3 1 24 Bowling Green last week.
   
  S Miss 1 3 28 Minor upset. Vegas says
  Rice 1 3 23 Rice by 2.5.
   
12 Ohio St. 3 1 33 Rutger receiver Bo Melton is going to
  Rutgers 3 1 24 have a field day vs OSU’s awful pass defense.
   
  New Mexico St. 1 4 10  
  San Jose St. 2 2 38  
   
  USF 1 3 17 Three of USF’s opponents are
  SMU 4 0 43 currently ranked by coaches.
   
  Louisiana 3 1 37  
  S Alabama 3 0 17  
   
  Troy 2 2 20  
  S Carolina 2 2 24  
   
18 Texas 3 1 38 TCU has been well under expectations
  TCU 2 1 27 the past two weeks.
   
  Memphis 3 1 43 Memphis’ fr running back Brandon
  Temple 2 2 21 Thomas is 6th in FBS for rush yards.
   
  Mississippi St. 2 2 15 Outside of Savvy and betting lines,
20 Texas A&M 3 1 30 I think MSU wins this.
   
  Houston 3 1 17 Despite diverse records, Savvy
  Tulsa 1 3 35 agrees with oddsmakers- Tulsa wins.
   
22 Liberty 3 1 27 Bettling lines all
  UAB 3 1 23 favor UAB.
   
9 BYU 4 0 35 BYU qb Jaren Hall has been fantastic
  Utah St. 3 1 20 but he’s still on the injury list [Monday].
   
  Old Dominion 1 3 30 Upset…UTEP has played one FBS opponent
  UTEP 3 1 27 in the top 110 and lost by 41 points.
   
  UNLV 0 4 10 UTSA’s defense ranks 18th
19 UTSA 4 0 43 in FBS for fewest yards allowed per game.
   
  Connecticut 0 5 20 Trend lines show UConn finishing
  Vanderbilt 1 3 36 2021 with a major up-swing.
   
  Louisville 3 1 21 I think Louisville will make
  Wake Forest 4 0 35 this closer than 14 pts.
   
14 Michigan 4 0 28 Michigan has yet to turn the ball over in 2021.
  Wisconsin 1 2 24 Wisconsin is dead last in FBS turnover margin.
   
  Texas Tech 3 1 17 Tech won’t have starting qb Shough who
  W Virginia 2 2 41 has a collarbone injury.
         

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