Surprising prediction for Alabama at Florida in week three Savvy projections

Top-ranked Alabama (2-0) travels to #7 Florida (2-0) for a game that prediction experts say will go to the Crimson Tide by more than 15 points.  Our Savvygameline has analyzed the trends for each team and is predicting only a one-possession win for the Tide.

Just as Savvy went against the odds to predict Iowa’s win over Iowa State last week, it sees #16 Indiana (1-1) upsetting #9 Cincinnati (2-0) this week. The projected margin is 30-27.

Expect a great game from eighth-ranked Penn State (2-0) and visiting #12 Auburn (2-0) since both teams are playing well above expections and neither has even one negative trend on the Savvy Index.  We see Penn State as a one possession favorite.

In an odd projection, betting lines show Chattanooga (1-1) of the FCS coming within ten points of Kentucky (2-0) but maybe they’re only looking at the first quarter.  Our Index says it will be Kentucky by 30+ as KU’s defense smothers the Mocs (yes, that’s their real nickname).  Only a Kentucky turnover in the short field will get the Moc U. Chat boys on the board.

Oddsmakers say #6 Oklahoma (2-0) is 22 points better than Nebraska (2-1) but the Cornhuskers’s trend lines have taken a sudden and impressive turn upward until our Index now sees a mere two-possession difference.  Nebraska currently carries the metrics of a bowl team.

SMU (2-0) will continue its climb toward the top 25 with an easy win over sputtering Louisiana Tech (1-1).  SMU’s Tanner Mordecai has already thrown 11 touchdown passes in just two games.

For the first time this season, experts are not predicting East Carolina (0-2) to win.  For whatever reasons, it seems the Pirates have become the darlings of the prognostic world even to the point of being predicted to beat South Carolina last week which of course didn’t happen. Our system called for South Carolina to win by four. The Gamecocks won by three. This week, the experts are finally calling for an ECU loss although the 9.5 margin to Marshall (2-0) is only about half of what it should be.

I don’t see anyone pointing to Massachusetts (0-2) as an upset candidate over Eastern Michigan (1-1).  In fact, betting lines have risen to nearly 20 points but UMass trend lines show a good chance that the Minutemen may win this one.  I know UMass has lost a lot of games and by big margins but don’t let that fool you into thinking that the “Minute” part of their nickname means they have become tiny.

There is also a high upset alert when Purdue (2-0) visits third-ranked Notre Dame (2-0).  Purdue has seven positive trends in our system while Notre Dame has five negative.  The Fighting Irish may have won both of their games, but both of those wins were against unranked opponents and each was by a mere three points. There’s a gluttony of trouble in the land of the Dames so it’s high time they put down the turnovers.

  IN THE PAC 12 . . .

Why is there so much football strangeness circulating Tucson, Arizona?

A week ago, a coaches poll voter looked at the University of Arizona, which hasn’t won a game in 23 months, and gave the Wildcats his vote for national ranking because, well, that’s what coaches poll voters do.  Right?

Within 24 hours, betting lines told us that winless Arizona would defeat undefeated San Diego State. It was an impressive and bold prediction. 

Until the game started.

 SDSU only needed 98 seconds to take a lead that culminated in a 38-14 rout.

Then yesterday, a reporter from Tucson’s Arizona Republic told his readers that cross-state rival Arizona State, whose highest-ranked victim is 125th, is not only on a path to the PAC-12 Conference championship, but the Sun Devils should be considered among the candidates for the national playoff. 

Sure. 

Let’s go with that.

Some one really needs to check for peyote in the aquifers.

Although our Index is predicting Arizona (0-2) will finally get its first win, the prediction comes with considerable caution because Northern Arizona (0-2) has already played two FCS national contenders and played both of them rather well.

Two other winless PAC-12 teams are 15-point picks as California [0-2} is favored over Sacramento State [1-1] and Washington (0-2) is favored over Arkansas State (1-1).

But, keep an eye on the Washington game because the Huskies rank 127th for yards per rush, 106th for stopping the rush, and quarterback Dylan Morris is graciously gifting 7% of his passes to the other team.

Also, Arkansas State has added some big names to its program as former Tennessee coach Butch Jones is now the Red Wolves’ head coach and former Florida State quarterback James Blackman is off to a great start in a system that fits him well.

I wonder if Husky head coach Jimmy Lake might now be interested in knowing how quarterbacks who transferred out of the Washington program are doing.

For example, would he think some wrong decisions were made if he knew that Jake Haener now leads the nation in passing yardage after he transferred to Fresno State?

How about Jacob Sirmon who transferred to Central Michigan and already has one 300-yard passing game against an SEC opponent and is now in the top third of the nation for number of touchdown passes.

We could mention former UW quarterbacks Ethan Garbers and Colson Yankoff who both transferred to UCLA but let’s skip them for now since Garbers is only the top heir-apparent and not yet the starter and Yankoff is a starter but only as a wide receiver.

In other games, the #5 Oregon Ducks (2-0) won’t be at much risk in flaunting newly-minted top five status against Stony Brook University (1-1) (formerly SUNY) from the FCS.  Duck fans should show a little heart since Stony is coming all the way across the country to lose by six touchdowns.

In other games, the Index shows Oregon State overcoming Idaho’s NFL prospect Mike Beaudry [42-24];  Stanford over Vanderbilt [30-21];  UCLA over Fresno State [36-24];  Utah over San Diego State [30-24]; USC over Washington State [35-27]; Colorado over Minnesota [27-24]; and BYU over Arizona State [28-20].

Last week, the Index was 77-11 (87%) in predicting winners compared to 80% for the betting lines. Our system was three games better in predicting spreads but a surprisingly awful 11 games worse in predicting over/unders which led me to discover contamination in the algorithm which has been fixed.

Best predictions were:

Wisconsin over E Michigan, 37-7 [final was 34-7]

Cincinnati over Murray St., 44-7 [final was 42-7]

Kentucky over Missouri, 31-27 [final was 35-28]

Miami Fl over App State, 25-23 [final was 28-24]

The worst prediction for Savvy was USC over Stanford by 15. Stanford won by 14.

For the year, the Index is 84% accurate in predicting games (145-28) compared to betting lines which are 75% (77-25).

If you’re looking for more PAC-12 or sports in the Northwest, please visit our friends at Oregon Sports News.

Here are our predictions for all 73 games this week: 


 

Savvy Index

2021      
  predictions week 3    
  last week: 71-11 87% Sept 18    
top 25 season: 145-28 84% wins losses prediction notes
fcs N Arizona 0 2 21 N Arizona has played two elite
  Arizona 0 2 30 FCS opponents.
           
  Arizona St. 2 0 20 Vegas says ASU by 2.5.
13 BYU 2 0 28  
           
fcs Sacramento St. 1 1 17  
  California 0 2 32  
           
  Minnesota 1 1 24 Minnesota’s defense is much
  Colorado 1 1 27 worse than expected.
           
fcs Stony Brook 1 1 7 Will the Ducks give Thompson
5 Oregon 2 0 43 some time?
           
fcs Idaho 1 1 21 Vandal’s qb Mike Beaudry is
  Oregon St. 1 1 42 worth the price of admission.
           
  Stanford 1 1 30 QB Tanner McKee appears to
  Vanderbilt 1 1 21 be the answer for Stanford.
           
  Fresno St. 2 1 24 The two hottest teams in California—
25 UCLA 2 0 36 with 18 positive game trends between them.
           
23 Utah 1 1 30  
  San Diego St. 2 0 24  
           
  Arkansas St. 1 1 24 Washington qb has horrendous
  Washington 0 2 33 7% interception rate.
           
  USC 1 1 35 WSU has played poorly despite a
  Washington St. 1 1 27 weaker-than-average schedule.
           
  Utah St. 2 0 30 Vegas says Air Force by nine.
  Air Force 2 0 28  
           
fcs Bryant 1 1 21 Akron giving up fourth most
  Akron 0 2 34 yards per game in FBS (517).
           
fcs Elon 1 1 10  
  App State 1 1 40  
           
  Georgia So. 1 1 20 Arkansas with a great win over
  Arkansas 2 0 34 Texas last week.
           
  Connecticut 0 3 13  
  Army 2 0 46  
           
  Oklahoma St. 2 0 28 Oklahoma State turnovers will
  Boise St. 1 1 31 finally result in a loss.
           
fcs Murray St. 1 1 21 Despite the close margin,
  Bowling Green 0 2 27 BGSU is a solid favorite.
           
15 Coastal Car 2 0 33 CCU will mandate tempo and
  Buffalo 1 1 27 that means over 51 pt betting line.
           
  Georgia Tech 1 1 10  
11 Clemson 1 1 37  
           
  Northwestern 1 1 30 I personally disagree with Vegas
  Duke 1 1 22 and Savvy and think Duke wins.
           
fcs Fordham 0 2 7 FAU is FBS worst in stopping the run
  Florida Atl. 1 1 52 and bottom 15 for offensive line play.
           
1 Alabama 2 0 32 I double checked this — Savvy
7 Florida 2 0 24 says it will be somewhat close.
           
  S Carolina 2 0 10 Oddsmakers set this at
2 Georgia 2 0 34 approximately 39-9.
           
  Charlotte 2 0 33 Oddsmakers disagree with Savvy but
  Georgia St. 0 2 27 GSU has terrible game trends.
           
  San Jose St. 1 1 37  
  Hawai’i 1 2 24  
           
fcs Grambling St. 1 1 7  
  Houston 1 1 44  
           
  Maryland 2 0 33 Maryland has six positive trends
  Illinois 1 2 24 vs Illinois with five negative.
           
9 Cincinnati 2 0 27 Indiana will win this in
16 Indiana 1 1 30 upset.
           
  Kent St. 1 1 17 Iowa is a legitimate candidate
4 Iowa 2 0 36 for the playoff.
           
  Baylor 2 0 33 Vegas is too high with 17.5 spread.
  Kansas 1 1 24 Too low with 50 pt over/under.
           
  Nevada 2 0 24 KSU quarterback Thompson is
  Kansas St. 2 0 23 uncertain for this game.
           
fcs Chattanooga 1 1 7 Vegas says KU by 10. It will be much more.
  Kentucky 2 0 39 Kentucky gives up just 1.4 yards per play.
           
  Old Dominion 1 1 16 Liberty doesn’t look as good
22 Liberty 2 0 39 as I thought.
           
  Ohio 0 2 20 Ohio has been really,
  Louisiana 1 1 37 really bad.
           
fcs Jackson St. 2 0 14  
  LA Monroe 0 1 31  
           
  SMU 2 0 36 SMU’s Tanner Mordecai has
  LA Tech 1 1 27 already thrown 11 td passes.
           
18 UCF 2 0 38  
  Louisville 1 1 24  
           
  C Michigan 1 1 20 LSU trends on Savvy point
  LSU 1 1 32 to a soon and sudden plunge.
           
  E Carolina 0 2 17 Oddsmakers are fond of E Carolina and
  Marshall 2 0 34 set this spread at less than 10.
           
  E Michigan 1 1 32 This has a moderate-to-high
  Massachusetts 0 2 27 upset alert.
           
  Mississippi St. 2 0 30 Oddsmakers say Miss St by 3.
  Memphis 2 0 33 Memphis qb Seth Henigan has been fabulous.
           
  Michigan St. 2 0 21 MSU’s hot streak is against medocre
17 Miami Fl 1 1 28 opponents. Miami has better talent.
           
fcs Long Island 0 2 12 LIU’s third FBS opponent
  Miami Oh 0 2 47 in as many weeks.
           
  N Illinois 1 1 13  
21 Michigan 2 0 42 Michigan’s Blake Corum averaging 8 yp carry.
           
  Tulane 1 1 32  
  Mississippi 2 0 39  
           
fcs SE Missouri St. 0 2 17 SEMO giving up 362 passing yards
  Missouri 1 1 45 per game to FCS teams.
           
fcs S Carolina St 0 2 24  
  New Mexico St. 0 3 32  
           
  Virginia 2 0 24  
  N Carolina 1 1 31  
           
fcs Furman 2 0 7  
  N Carolina St. 1 1 38  
           
  UAB 1 1 27 Over/under is set at 57.5.
  N Texas 1 1 21 It won’t get that high.
           
  Purdue 2 0 20 Very high upset alert.
3 Notre Dame 2 0 38  
           
  Tulsa 0 2 21 When was the last time
10 Ohio St. 1 1 39 Ohio State gave up 33 ppg?
           
  Nebraska 2 1 24 Nebraska has Savvy-metrics
6 Oklahoma 2 0 40 of a bowl team.
           
12 Auburn 2 0 24 Each of these teams has
8 Penn St. 2 0 29 six positive game trends already.
           
  W Michigan 1 1 21 WMU gives up nine yards
  Pittsburgh 2 0 37 per play, worst in FBS.
           
fcs Delaware 2 0 17  
  Rutgers 2 0 32  
           
fcs Alcorn St. 1 1 6  
  S Alabama 2 0 37  
           
  Troy 1 1 28  
  S Miss 1 1 16  
           
fcs Albany 0 2 14 Syracuse is well above expectations
  Syracuse 1 1 32 and fr rb Sean Tucker is a big reason why.
           
  Boston Col 2 0 40 BC’s quarterback Jurkovec
  Temple 1 1 24 is probably done for the season.
           
fcs Tenn Tech 0 2 10 Tennessee leads the nation
  Tennessee 1 1 44 in lost fumbles.
           
  Rice 0 2 14 Both teams were awful
24 Texas 1 1 42 last week.
           
  New Mexico 2 0 12 UNM has second best yards per play defense in America.
14 Texas A&M 2 0 36 A&M worst total turnovers in FBS.
           
fcs Incarnate Word 1 1 17  
  Texas St. 1 1 32  
           
  Florida Intl. 1 1 28 FIU averages 11.1 yards per rush.
  Texas Tech 2 0 30  
           
  Colorado St. 0 2 20 Is this the end of CSU
  Toledo 1 1 40 coach Addazio?
           
20 Iowa St. 1 1 34 Iowa State has 5 negative
  UNLV 0 2 13 game trends in just two games.
           
fcs Florida A&M 1 1 22 I personally think USF
  USF 0 2 24 will be okay despite 2 pt spread.
           
  Middle Tenn 1 1 20 MTSU offensive line may be the worst
  UTSA 2 0 37 run blocking group in the country.
           
  Florida St. 0 2 27 FSU lost to an FCS last week.
  Wake Forest 2 0 32 Wake has played FBS easiest schedule.
           
  Virginia Tech 2 0 25 Savvy agrees with odds-
  W Virginia 1 1 30 makers about this upset.
           
  Ball St. 1 1 30 Minor upset.
  Wyoming 2 0 24  
           

 

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