Last week, our Savvy Index college football prediction system was 67-17 in predicting winners. For the season, our Index is 81% accurate (74-17) in choosing winners compared to 71% by the betting lines and it is three games better in predicting spreads and four games better in defining over/under.
Another hefty schedule is on tap this week with 82 games involving FBS teams. Leading the way is #12 Oregon (1-0) at #5 Ohio State (1-0) in a 9 a.m. PDT kickoff. OSU is seven points better on our Index.
Ordinarily, I would expect Ohio State to test the Ducks’ inefficient short pass defense but the Buckeyes have two receivers and a tight end who are questionable for Saturday’s game. However, the long ball is still there with Chris Olave averaging 29 yards per catch and quarterback C.J. Stroud can expect time to throw long since Oregon may not have elite pressure guys Kayvon Thibodeaux or Dru Mathis.
Oregon will do some early testing of Ohio State’s rush defense since the Buckeyes were less than impressive in giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Minnesota last Saturday.
The second-best game this week is Iowa at Iowa State. The betting public is banking on Iowa State to upend the Hawkeyes but our system sees a 26-21 advantage for Iowa.
It’s sorta funny to see oddsmakers choosing Colorado State over visiting Vanderbilt. But then, I find it odd that any national expert would even bother since both of these teams were creamed by FCS opponents last week.
We predicted Colorado State’s loss to South Dakota State. What we didn’t see coming was the total devastation the Jackrabbits inflicted on the Rams. Before the subs came in, SDSU was up 35-10 and running the ball at seven yards per carry against a front seven that Colorado State coach Steve Addazio had promised was the best in the Mountain West.
So much for BragAddazio.
Although betting lines favor CSU by seven, our Index says it will be Vanderbilt, 32-21.
Our system also sees Buffalo upsetting Nebraska and Rice upsetting Houston.
Among our best predictions last week were:
Utah 40, Weber State 14
[the final was 40-17]
Mississippi 43, Louisville 28
[the final was 43-24]
North Texas 41, Northwestern State 14
[the final was 44-14]
TCU 44, Duquesne 7
[the final was 45-3]
Eastern Washington (FCS) 31, UNLV [FBS] 30 [upset]
[the final was 35-33]
Our worst call was predicting Ohio over Syracuse by 14 only to have it go the other way by 20. Although that was the worst, I am also rather impressed with Savvy missing Washington’s loss to Montana of the FCS by a 33 point reversal and Stanford’s loss to Kansas State by 25.
This week in the PAC-12 . . .
San Diego State (1-0) 30
Arizona (0-1) 21
Oddsmakers favor Arizona by one.
Arizona State (1-0) 44
UNLV (0-1) 14
Oddsmakers say ASU by 32.5
TCU (1-0) 31
California (0-1) 14
Oddmakers limit this to a 10.5 spread.
Texas A&M (1-0) 34
Colorado (1-0) 21
Oddsmakers love A&M and favor the Aggies by 17.
Ohio State (1-0) 37
Oregon (1-0) 30
Oddsmakers say the margin is 14.5.
Oregon State (0-1) 35
Hawai’i (1-1) 32
Oddsmakers see Oregon State by 11.
USC (1-0) 32
Stanford (0-1) 17
Oddsmakers [and I] say 17.5.
Utah (1-0) 28
BYU (1-0) 27
Oddsmakers say Utah by 7. I personally think Utah by 14+.
Michigan (1-0) 28
Washington (0-1) 21
Odd that the oddsmakers say only 6.5.
Washington St. (0-1) 46
Portland State (0-1) 17
No betting line for this one but I suspect it will be closer.
If you’re looking for more sports in the Northwest, please visit our friends at Oregon Sports News.
Here are all 82 of the Savvygameline predictions for this week:
|last week: 67-17 80%||Sept||11|
|top 25||season: 74-17 81%||wins||losses||prediction||notes|
|San Diego St.||1||0||30||Oddsmakers say|
|Arizona||0||1||21||Arizona will win this.|
|UNLV||0||1||14||ASU’s defense and horrible|
|Arizona St.||1||0||41||turnovers are problematic.|
|California||0||1||14||Cal pass defense is 112th.|
|TCU||1||0||31||TCU’s secondary looks awesome.|
|18||Texas A&M||1||0||34||A&M leads the nation|
|Colorado||1||0||21||in turnovers per game.|
|12||Oregon||1||0||30||Oregon ranks 124th for|
|5||Ohio St.||1||0||37||pass defense efficiency.|
|Oregon St.||0||1||35||OSU by 11.|
|Stanford||0||1||17||Stanford can’t stop the run.|
|13||USC||1||0||32||This will be all USC.|
|14||Utah||1||0||28||BYU lost three WR’s and its|
|21||BYU||1||0||27||defense has problems.|
|Washington||0||1||21||UW with 4 WR’s injured.|
|Michigan||1||0||28||I think Michigan by 14+.|
|fcs||Portland St.||0||1||17||WSU is vulnerable to PSU.|
|Washington St.||0||1||46||Cougs have no long-ball attack.|
|Temple||0||1||28||Akron defense yielded|
|Akron||0||1||27||613 yards to Auburn.|
|Memphis||1||0||36||High upset alert since|
|Arkansas St.||1||0||28||UM qb Gunnell injury.|
|W Kentucky||1||0||21||Personally, I think Army|
|Army||1||0||32||wins by 17+.|
|fcs||Alabama St.||0||1||0||Reality and Penn St. set in|
|23||Auburn||1||0||51||for Auburn next week.|
|fcs||Texas Southern||0||1||7||TSU is near the bottom of FCS.|
|UTEP||2||0||21||Vegas says BSU by 26.|
|Boise St.||0||1||37||UTEP is better than that.|
|S Alabama||1||0||34||Bowling Green averaged less|
|Bowling Green||0||1||24||than 1.4 yards per rush vs Tenn.|
|fcs||S Carolina St||0||1||7|
|Kansas||1||0||14||Coastal Carolina is|
|20||Coastal Car||1||0||39||completing 83% of its passes.|
|Vanderbilt||0||1||32||CSU defense gave up 7.1 yards|
|Colorado St.||0||1||21||per rush to FCS S Dakota St. last week.|
|fcs||N Carolina A&T||0||1||24|
|S Carolina||1||0||31||SCar leads nations in first downs.|
|E Carolina||0||1||27||Vegas favors E Carolina.|
|Texas St.||0||1||17||Vegas says FIU by 1.|
|Florida Intl.||1||0||33||FIU leads FBS in yards per play (12.4).|
|fcs||Jacksonville St.||0||1||17||JSU is a national|
|Florida St.||0||1||37||contender in FCS.|
|UAB||1||0||13||UAB is tough this year.|
|3||Georgia||1||0||31||UGA had 3 WRs injured against Clemson.|
|6||Iowa||1||0||26||Betting lines favor|
|15||Iowa St.||1||0||21||Iowa State by 4.5.|
|Missouri||1||0||27||Missouri got nine sacks last week vs CMich.|
|Kentucky||1||0||31||Kentucky held La-Monroe to 88 total yards.|
|fcs||E Kentucky||0||1||17||E Kentucky’s second FBS|
|Louisville||0||1||43||opponent in as many weeks.|
|fcs||SE Louisiana||1||0||21||This is an FCS ambush|
|LA Tech||0||1||35||waiting to happen.|
|fcs||McNeese St.||0||1||12||McNeese lost to Div II W Florida last week.|
|LSU||0||1||47||LSU LESS than 2 yds per rush.|
|fcs||NC Central||1||0||3||Marshall fr qb Grant Wells is|
|Marshall||1||0||48||terrific if he cuts down interceptions.|
|fcs||Howard||0||0||7||Howard will struggle with|
|Maryland||1||0||53||Maryland’s defensive pressure.|
|fcs||Youngstown St.||1||0||10||Michigan State was way over|
|Michigan St.||1||0||38||expectations last week.|
|Miami Oh||0||1||21||Experts say Minn by 20|
|Minnesota||0||1||37||but injuries will make this closer.|
|fcs||Austin Peay||1||0||20||Ol’ Miss leads|
|Mississippi||1||0||42||the nation in penalties.|
|N Carolina St.||1||0||31||Miss State still has major|
|Mississippi St.||1||0||21||turnover issues.|
|Air Force||1||0||31||Betting line is 40.5 o/u.|
|Navy||0||1||27||It will be much more.|
|Buffalo||1||0||35||Buffs lead nation in yp rush.|
|Nebraska||1||1||28||Odds say Nebraska by 13+.|
|fcs||Idaho St.||0||1||12||Nevada’s pass defense|
|Nevada||1||0||43||doesn’t look as good as I predicted.|
|Wyoming||1||0||21||Minor upset in the most boring|
|N Illinois||1||0||24||game of the weekend.|
|New Mexico St.||0||2||21||NMSU showed some|
|New Mexico||1||0||35||competitiveness last week.|
|fcs||Indiana St.||1||0||7||Northwestern looked awful|
|Toledo||1||0||21||Odds say 54 over/under.|
|2||Notre Dame||1||0||42||It will be over.|
|fcs||Duquesne||0||1||14||Ohio looked terrible last|
|Ohio||0||1||40||week under a new head coach.|
|Tulsa||0||1||27||Two of the biggest|
|25||Oklahoma St.||1||0||31||disappointments in week one.|
|fcs||Hampton||1||0||24||Hampton rb Elijah Burris|
|Old Dominion||0||1||40||is a handful.|
|Ball St.||1||0||21||Ball State is good but|
|11||Penn St.||1||0||32||not good enough this week.|
|Rutgers||1||0||28||I think Rutgers wins by|
|Syracuse||1||0||27||10 or more.|
|fcs||Stephen F Austin||1||0||17||SFA played three FBS opponents|
|Texas Tech||1||0||38||in 2020 and nearly beat two of them.|
|fcs||Lamar||1||0||13||UTSA with a nice upset road|
|UTSA||1||0||39||win over Illinois last week.|
|Illinois||1||1||21||Illinois will struggle again|
|Virginia||1||0||33||without qb Peters.|
|Middle Tenn||1||0||21||QB Bailey Hockman is a huge|
|Virginia Tech||1||0||38||“get” for the MTSU program.|
|fcs||Illinois St.||1||0||27||Very high upset rating.|
|W Michigan||0||1||34||WMU giving up 8 yards per rush.|
|fcs||Long Island||0||1||10||LIU starts the season with|
|W Virginia||0||1||54||three FBS opponents.|