Predictions for all 46 FBS games in week 8


This week is the beginning of Big Ten football and because of that, we have 46 games on the schedule.

Three of those match ranked teams led by a showdown between Cincinnati (3-0) at SMU (5-0).  Despite SMU’s advantage of playing at home and being favored by the betting lines, the Savvy Index is projecting a 30-28 win for the Bearcats.

The Index correctly predicted #24 Iowa State’s (3-1) upset of Oklahoma last month but predicting another upset over another Oklahoma team this month isn’t in the works.  The #24 Cyclones are two point underdogs at #6 Oklahoma State (3-0) in a game that will be low scoring.  OSU is only allowing nine points per game.  When was the last time that happened in the Big 12?

In a battle of the questionable quarterbacks, North Carolina (3-1) is figured 34-30 over North Carolina State.  Each team has had interception issues and NCSU now has to replace its starting quarterback.  With an expectation of turnovers and this being a rivalry game, it should be exciting.

Top ranked Clemson (6-0) will have no problem with Syracuse (1-5).

Second ranked Alabama (4-0) will prove once and for all that Tennessee (2-2) was only a pretender and never a contender.  The Tide’s Mac Jones is the top rated passer in the FBS while the Vols have lost seven turnovers in just four games.

Third ranked Notre Dame (4-0) is projected to struggle on the road at Pittsburgh (3-3) primarly because Pitt has only yielded 275 total yards per game.

Fourth ranked Ohio State (0-0) finally gets into action and will have no problem husking Nebraska (0-0).

Illinois (2-2) has been making steady progress on the field and especially recruiting under Lovie Smith but will lose its opener against a #9 Wisconsin (0-0) team that has all of the pieces to make a run in the Big Ten.

Based on some analytics before last weeks games, I knew it would be a tough week for predictions.  Savvy finished 19-9 and now stands 105-34 on the season.  Historically, the Index runs at 77% accuracy.  This week’s predictions are expected to get back close to that historical average after two weeks under 70%.

Despite the drop in picking winners, the system was rather good at projecting final scores, such as predicting Marshall over Lousiana Tech 33-17 (final was 35-17), UAB over Western Kentucky 31-17 (final was 34-17), and West Virginia over Kansas 40-14 (final was 38-17).

Biggest miss was predicting Georgia by four in upset of Alabama. The Tide won by 17.


  Savvy Index   2020    
  predictions week 8    
  last week: 19 – 9 68% Oct 18    
top 25 Season: 124 – 43 74% wins losses prediction  
  Arkansas St. 3 2 27 Ark S. #3 in FBS passing.
  App State 2 1 36 App S. struggling with turnovers.
fcs Mercer 0 0 17 Mercer should be about
  Army 5 1 43 average for an FCS.
  Utah St. 0 0 28 USU has a lot to answer for
22 Boise St. 0 0 36 in its backfield.
  Georgia Tech 2 3 24 GaTech in top 25 for
  Boston Col 3 2 34 rushing but bottom 25 for passing.
  Texas St. 1 5 21 Bets are 30 points on
7 BYU 5 0 37 spread. TSU will keep it closer.
  UTEP 3 2 20 Despite being 1-2,
  Charlotte 1 2 28 Charlotte looks good.
  Syracuse 1 5 14 Probably a shutout in frist
1 Clemson 6 0 47 2 ½ quarters.
  Georgia So. 3 1 28 CoCar has gained seven
  Coastal Car 4 0 32 turnovers in just four games.
  New Mexico 0 0 28 I disagree with Savvy.
  Colorado St. 0 0 33 I say CSU 42-14.
fcs Jackson St. 2 1 17 FIU’s D’vonte Price
  Florida Intl. 0 2 44 is #3 in rushing ypg.
  Hawai’i 0 0 30 I’m not sure why this is FSU
  Fresno St. 0 0 31 but experts seem to agree.
5 Penn St. 0 0 35 Betting lines are too low
  Indiana 0 0 24 both for spread and total points.
  Kansas 0 4 17 It seems that in Kansas,
  Kansas St. 3 1 39 Les is less.
  S Miss 1 3 30 Liberty’s defense is much
18 Liberty 5 0 32 better than I expected.
  Florida St. 2 3 27 I’m surprised that everyone including
  Louisville 1 4 28 Savvy favors Louisville.
  S Carolina 2 2 30 Is SCarolina making a mistak
  LSU 1 2 32 to have Ryan Hilinski on the bench?
  Florida Atl. 1 0 21 FAU’s McCarthy is #1 in
16 Marshall 4 0 30 the nation for forcing turnovers.
  Temple 1 1 30  
  Memphis 2 1 39  
  Virginia 1 3 21 Disappointing Virginia defense is
14 Miami Fl 4 1 35 giving up 35 ppg.
  Rutgers 0 0 13 Don’t get excited MSU . . . coach Tucker
  Michigan St. 0 0 31 won’t reach the summit in his first year in E. Lansing.
15 Michigan 0 0 32
  Minnesota 0 0 27
  Auburn 2 2 38 Will the real Bo Nix
  Mississippi 1 3 27 please show up.
  Kentucky 2 2 33 Missouri hasn’t held
  Missouri 1 2 24 any opponent under 35 points.
  Houston 1 1 37 Navy not rushing the
  Navy 3 2 28 ball like years past.
24 N Carolina St. 4 1 30 NCarSt qb is out.
13 N Carolina 3 1 34 UNC’s qb has over 3% interceptions. 
  Maryland 0 0 20 Maryland has recruited
  Northwestern 0 0 31 eight D-1 transfers.
  Nebraska 0 0 24 Must be a late winter
4 Ohio St. 0 0 41 cuz Frost hasn’t set in yet in Nebraska.
24 Iowa St. 3 1 26 Who expected Okla St
6 Oklahoma St. 3 0 28 to have a top 10 defense?
3 Notre Dame 4 0 28 Pitt only giving up
  Pittsburgh 3 3 20 275 total ypg.
17 Iowa 0 0 34  
  Purdue 0 0 21  
  Middle Tenn 1 5 28  
  Rice 0 0 30  
  UNLV 0 0 20  
  San Diego St. 0 0 35  
  Air Force 1 0 30 Air Force has TWO of the
  San Jose St. 0 0 24 top four rushers in FBS.
11 Cincinnati 3 0 30 Based on betting lines,
8 SMU 5 0 28 this is a small upset.
  LA Monroe 0 5 20  
  S Alabama 2 2 35  
  Oklahoma 2 2 35 … as long as Spencer
  TCU 1 2 28 doesn’t get too Rattled.
2 Alabama 4 0 41 Tide has nation’s top-rated passer.
  Tennessee 2 2 21  
  Baylor 1 1 30
  Texas 2 2 34
  W Virginia 3 1 40  
  Texas Tech 1 3 24
  Georgia St. 1 2 32 Despite this prediction
  Troy 3 1 40 Troy still doesn’t look like a 3-1 team to me.
23 LA Lafayette 3 1 28 Louisiana Lafayette doesn’t
  UAB 4 1 27 make many mistakes.
  Tulane 2 3 30 When was that last time you saw
  UCF 2 2 40 an unranked UCF team?
  Tulsa 1 1 28 I think Tulsa’s vastly
  USF 1 4 30 improved defense wins this.
  LA Tech 3 2 28 UTSA’s Sincere McCormick
  UTSA 3 3 27 leads nation in rushing.
  Va Tech 3 1 36 Too many people think
  Wake Forest 2 2 33 this will be a blowout for Va Tech.
  Illinois 0 0 21 Illinois will be competitive . . .
9 Wisconsin 0 0 40 just not this week.
fcs Chattanooga 0 0 24 Watch out ‘cuz Savvy
  W Kentucky 1 4 35 sees a high upset chance here.
         

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