This week is the beginning of Big Ten football and because of that, we have 46 games on the schedule.
Three of those match ranked teams led by a showdown between Cincinnati (3-0) at SMU (5-0). Despite SMU’s advantage of playing at home and being favored by the betting lines, the Savvy Index is projecting a 30-28 win for the Bearcats.
The Index correctly predicted #24 Iowa State’s (3-1) upset of Oklahoma last month but predicting another upset over another Oklahoma team this month isn’t in the works. The #24 Cyclones are two point underdogs at #6 Oklahoma State (3-0) in a game that will be low scoring. OSU is only allowing nine points per game. When was the last time that happened in the Big 12?
In a battle of the questionable quarterbacks, North Carolina (3-1) is figured 34-30 over North Carolina State. Each team has had interception issues and NCSU now has to replace its starting quarterback. With an expectation of turnovers and this being a rivalry game, it should be exciting.
Top ranked Clemson (6-0) will have no problem with Syracuse (1-5).
Second ranked Alabama (4-0) will prove once and for all that Tennessee (2-2) was only a pretender and never a contender. The Tide’s Mac Jones is the top rated passer in the FBS while the Vols have lost seven turnovers in just four games.
Third ranked Notre Dame (4-0) is projected to struggle on the road at Pittsburgh (3-3) primarly because Pitt has only yielded 275 total yards per game.
Fourth ranked Ohio State (0-0) finally gets into action and will have no problem husking Nebraska (0-0).
Illinois (2-2) has been making steady progress on the field and especially recruiting under Lovie Smith but will lose its opener against a #9 Wisconsin (0-0) team that has all of the pieces to make a run in the Big Ten.
Based on some analytics before last weeks games, I knew it would be a tough week for predictions. Savvy finished 19-9 and now stands 105-34 on the season. Historically, the Index runs at 77% accuracy. This week’s predictions are expected to get back close to that historical average after two weeks under 70%.
Despite the drop in picking winners, the system was rather good at projecting final scores, such as predicting Marshall over Lousiana Tech 33-17 (final was 35-17), UAB over Western Kentucky 31-17 (final was 34-17), and West Virginia over Kansas 40-14 (final was 38-17).
Biggest miss was predicting Georgia by four in upset of Alabama. The Tide won by 17.
|last week: 19 – 9 68%||Oct||18|
|top 25||Season: 124 – 43 74%||wins||losses||prediction|
|Arkansas St.||3||2||27||Ark S. #3 in FBS passing.|
|App State||2||1||36||App S. struggling with turnovers.|
|fcs||Mercer||0||0||17||Mercer should be about|
|Army||5||1||43||average for an FCS.|
|Utah St.||0||0||28||USU has a lot to answer for|
|22||Boise St.||0||0||36||in its backfield.|
|Georgia Tech||2||3||24||GaTech in top 25 for|
|Boston Col||3||2||34||rushing but bottom 25 for passing.|
|Texas St.||1||5||21||Bets are 30 points on|
|7||BYU||5||0||37||spread. TSU will keep it closer.|
|UTEP||3||2||20||Despite being 1-2,|
|Charlotte||1||2||28||Charlotte looks good.|
|Syracuse||1||5||14||Probably a shutout in frist|
|1||Clemson||6||0||47||2 ½ quarters.|
|Georgia So.||3||1||28||CoCar has gained seven|
|Coastal Car||4||0||32||turnovers in just four games.|
|New Mexico||0||0||28||I disagree with Savvy.|
|Colorado St.||0||0||33||I say CSU 42-14.|
|fcs||Jackson St.||2||1||17||FIU’s D’vonte Price|
|Florida Intl.||0||2||44||is #3 in rushing ypg.|
|Hawai’i||0||0||30||I’m not sure why this is FSU|
|Fresno St.||0||0||31||but experts seem to agree.|
|5||Penn St.||0||0||35||Betting lines are too low|
|Indiana||0||0||24||both for spread and total points.|
|Kansas||0||4||17||It seems that in Kansas,|
|Kansas St.||3||1||39||Les is less.|
|S Miss||1||3||30||Liberty’s defense is much|
|18||Liberty||5||0||32||better than I expected.|
|Florida St.||2||3||27||I’m surprised that everyone including|
|Louisville||1||4||28||Savvy favors Louisville.|
|S Carolina||2||2||30||Is SCarolina making a mistak|
|LSU||1||2||32||to have Ryan Hilinski on the bench?|
|Florida Atl.||1||0||21||FAU’s McCarthy is #1 in|
|16||Marshall||4||0||30||the nation for forcing turnovers.|
|Virginia||1||3||21||Disappointing Virginia defense is|
|14||Miami Fl||4||1||35||giving up 35 ppg.|
|Rutgers||0||0||13||Don’t get excited MSU . . . coach Tucker|
|Michigan St.||0||0||31||won’t reach the summit in his first year in E. Lansing.|
|Auburn||2||2||38||Will the real Bo Nix|
|Mississippi||1||3||27||please show up.|
|Kentucky||2||2||33||Missouri hasn’t held|
|Missouri||1||2||24||any opponent under 35 points.|
|Houston||1||1||37||Navy not rushing the|
|Navy||3||2||28||ball like years past.|
|24||N Carolina St.||4||1||30||NCarSt qb is out.|
|13||N Carolina||3||1||34||UNC’s qb has over 3% interceptions.|
|Maryland||0||0||20||Maryland has recruited|
|Northwestern||0||0||31||eight D-1 transfers.|
|Nebraska||0||0||24||Must be a late winter|
|4||Ohio St.||0||0||41||cuz Frost hasn’t set in yet in Nebraska.|
|24||Iowa St.||3||1||26||Who expected Okla St|
|6||Oklahoma St.||3||0||28||to have a top 10 defense?|
|3||Notre Dame||4||0||28||Pitt only giving up|
|Pittsburgh||3||3||20||275 total ypg.|
|San Diego St.||0||0||35|
|Air Force||1||0||30||Air Force has TWO of the|
|San Jose St.||0||0||24||top four rushers in FBS.|
|11||Cincinnati||3||0||30||Based on betting lines,|
|8||SMU||5||0||28||this is a small upset.|
|Oklahoma||2||2||35||… as long as Spencer|
|TCU||1||2||28||doesn’t get too Rattled.|
|2||Alabama||4||0||41||Tide has nation’s top-rated passer.|
|Georgia St.||1||2||32||Despite this prediction|
|Troy||3||1||40||Troy still doesn’t look like a 3-1 team to me.|
|23||LA Lafayette||3||1||28||Louisiana Lafayette doesn’t|
|UAB||4||1||27||make many mistakes.|
|Tulane||2||3||30||When was that last time you saw|
|UCF||2||2||40||an unranked UCF team?|
|Tulsa||1||1||28||I think Tulsa’s vastly|
|USF||1||4||30||improved defense wins this.|
|LA Tech||3||2||28||UTSA’s Sincere McCormick|
|UTSA||3||3||27||leads nation in rushing.|
|Va Tech||3||1||36||Too many people think|
|Wake Forest||2||2||33||this will be a blowout for Va Tech.|
|Illinois||0||0||21||Illinois will be competitive . . .|
|9||Wisconsin||0||0||40||just not this week.|
|fcs||Chattanooga||0||0||24||Watch out ‘cuz Savvy|
|W Kentucky||1||4||35||sees a high upset chance here.|