We knew going into last week that it would be the wildest and most unpredictable week of the season so far. Get ready ‘cuz more is on the way.
Who would have guessed that Mississippit State’s Leach-Raid offense would not score a single point or that Mississippi would score 48 against Alabama — and lose?
Prediction indicators on the Savvy Index point to more of the same this week as several upsets are being projected and there is an increase in the number of games that Savvy has tagged “critically close”.
The headliner, of course, is #2 Georgia (3-0) at #3 Alabama (3-0). The UGA Bulldogs are 34-30 favorites on the Savvy Index although the national line favors Alabama by about a touchdown.
Georgia is second in the nation in total defense while the Crimson Tide is an uncharacteristic 66th. The Bulldogs are nearly 100% in performance expectations on Savvy while Alabama is about 67%.
Flordia (2-1) seems a universal pick to hand LSU (1-2) another loss. While it would be easy for me to say that coach Ed Orgeron is only as good as the Burrow he rides, his biggest problem is a pass defense that Savvy’s preseason metrics suggested is one of the weakest units on the team. I’m sure no one expected it to be second to the last in the entire FBS as it is now.
Fourth-ranked Notre Dame (3-0) is playing at a national championship level and has all of the pieces it needs to get to the final game. The Fighting Irish are Savvy-favored 36-17 over disappointing Louisville (1-3).
SMU (4-0) continues to surprise me. Coach Sonny Dykes has a history of awful defenses as well as unremarkable rushing attacks. But the Mustangs are in the top half of FBS defenses and the rushing attack is ranked ninth nationwide. This week, the eighth ranked ‘Stangs are on the road and figure 38-28 better than Tulane (2-2).
Remember when Massachusetts was asked if it was going to play football in 2020 and administrators said, “no.” Then, “I don’t know.” Then, “maybe.” Then, “just kidding.”
Well, the Minutemen (0-0) travel to Georgia Southern (2-1) in what has been called a “rematch of the the greatest game ever played” by UMass. That would be the 1998 Division 1-AA championship that the Minutmen won over Georgia Southern, 55-43.
According to the Index, GaSo wins this one at home.
Although it’s nice that the Minutemen are finally playing, their indecision is annoying, enough to think that from now on, we should call them the Minute-to-Minute Men.
I don’t know.
The most surprising Savvy prediction of the season so far takes place in New York where Syracuse (1-3) is a one point choice over the Liberty Flames (4-0). Although Liberty has yet to play an opponent with merit, the Flames have at least played well, so this is an odd pick by the Index.
I mentioned last week that in studying the Florida-Texas A&M game in some detail, it looked to me that Florida might lose in a bit of a “trap” upset. Whether it was that or a red hot Kellen Mond, the Gators did indeed lose, 41-38. I owe you one, GatorNation.
The Savvy system went nearly 10 points against the odds to pick North Carolina State (3-1) in an upset of Virginia (1-2). NC State made it look easy with an impressive 38-21 win. Despite that and a 3-1 record, the Wolfpack will need another win to enter the Savvy top 25.
The Index’ best prediction was Marshall over Western Kentucky 33-14. The final was 38-14.
The system’s biggest miss was North Texas by one over Charlotte. North Texas lost 49-21.
Last week, Savvy finished 18-11 for predicting games. That is the lowest accuracy (62%) for the Index since 2016. As bad as that was, it was still better than the oddsmakers. Savvy was two games better in predicting spreads and another two games better in predicting total points.
|last week: 18-11 62%||Oct||17|
|top 25||Season: 105-34 76%||wins||losses||prediction|
|2||Georgia||3||0||34||Georgia giving opponents|
|3||Alabama||3||0||30||just 1.5 yards per rush attempt.|
|Mississippi||1||2||35||I think Savvy & the|
|Arkansas||1||2||33||oddsmakers are wrong.|
|Georgia St.||1||1||33||Metrics suggest Arkansas St.|
|Arkansas St.||2||2||35||should begin to come together from here on out.|
|Navy||2||2||31||Navy has been really|
|E Carolina||1||2||30||tough to predict this season.|
|LSU||1||2||34||LSU pass defense is|
|14||Florida||2||1||35||2nd to last in FBS.|
|Massachusetts||0||0||31||Most of GSU’s metrics|
|Georgia So.||2||1||32||are negative.|
|1||Clemson||4||0||39||Tech rush defense is better than 2019
|Georgia Tech||2||2||17||but Clemson still has Entienne.|
|15||BYU||4||0||38||BYU’s Wilson is 2nd in nation for pass efficiency.|
|Houston||1||0||28||Houston is first in nation in turnovers.|
|Coastal Car||3||0||28||CoCarolina has been|
|21||LA Lafayette||3||0||35||top-five in scoring points.|
|UCF||2||1||34||Finally, UCF isn’t|
|Memphis||1||1||32||playing a patsie.|
|Pittsburgh||3||2||27||Pitt defense is a surprise|
|12||Miami Fl||3||1||31||at #11 nationally.|
|N Texas||1||3||33||…but UNT defense gives up|
|Middle Tenn||1||4||32||579 yards per game.|
|Missouri||1||2||34||in FBS scoring so far.|
|N Carolina St.||3||1||35|
|Louisville||1||3||17||Notre Dame giving up|
|4||Notre Dame||3||0||36||just 13 ppg.|
|Texas St.||1||4||31||Betting lines favor|
|S Alabama||1||2||24||South Alabama.|
|Liberty||4||0||27||surprising upset prediction|
|USF||1||3||24||Savvy said new USF coach Scott would|
|Temple||0||1||36||struggle, but not this much.|
|8||SMU||4||0||38||Would you believe SMU is|
|Tulane||2||2||28||9th in the nation in rushing?|
|11||Cincinnati||3||0||34||Tulsa looks better to me|
|Tulsa||1||1||13||than prior 3 seasons.|
|S Miss||1||3||31||SoMiss continues to|
|UTEP||3||2||21||show rising metrics.|
|Kansas||0||3||14||Hang in there coach Myles . . . LSU|
|W Virginia||2||1||40||may still have your number.|