Predictions for all FBS games in week 3

Texas tech cheerleaders 2018.com


Savvygameline was 59-14 in predicting games last week, including Colorado’s win over Nebraska which brings our season total to 134-24  (85%).

This week, there are 65 games involving FBS teams and, as always, we have predictions for all of them.  What is different is how games are listed.  Since we are headquartered in PAC-12 country, we will list those games first.  All others are shown in alphabetic sequence of the home teams.

The only matchup involving Savvy-ranked teams is 10th-ranked Florida at 19th-ranked Kentucky.  The home Wildcats no longer have the services of starting quarterback Terry Wilson who will use this as a redshirt season and return next year. Despite being lower-ranked and losing its starting quarterback, Kentucky has much better trend lines on Savvy and is a one-point choice to upset the Gators.

Kentucky will turn to Sawyer Smith to lead the way.   Smith is a refugee from the coaching change at Troy where he was the starter in 2018 and completed 62.9% of his passes while leading the Trojans to a 10-3 record.

In the PAC-12 . . .

The Index has plummeting Arizona as a two-point choice over Texas Tech.  Although Tech is on the rise, there isn’t yet enough evidence to push TTU above Arizona in this week’s predictions.

Michigan State should have no trouble with Arizona State’s struggling offense [and fan base] while Cal will ground and pound North Texas, a team that has lately become much less Mean than Green.

The Index shows Oregon winning by a modest 32 over Montana in a game that will likely have plentiful subs early in the second half.

Oregon State will initially find it difficult to stop Cal Poly but the Beavers should eventually surge to a 30-point win.

When Colorado hired Mel Tucker as its head coach, our coaching evaluation program told us it was a terrific hire—one of the best in FBS.  This week, if the Buffaloes stay true to form and beat Air Force as predicted, they will have a 3-0 record and impressive metrics on Savvy.  There is a need for caution however because Colorado was 5-0 last year before collapsing with seven straight losses.

We expected to see much more out Alex Grinch’s defense at Oklahoma.  But then, we also thought would see much more out of Chip Kelly’s offense at UCLA (ranked 122nd). On Saturday, the two get together to see which can reek less.  The only benefit UCLA has is that the game is scheduled for the Nose Bowl.

Unranked USC should run up lots of yardage behind freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis who leads the nation in completion percentage (89%).  The Trojans are Savvy-favored over BYU, 37-24.

If the Washington Huskies (#25) have any trouble with Hawai’i, they only need to wait.  The Rainbows lead the nation in turnovers so it’s only a matter of time until they give the ball back.  Washington is favored, 41-28.

Washington State’s Air Raid factory is at it again as the Cougars are fifth nationally in total offense. What shouldn’t be missed is what Savvy preseason projections told us:   WSU has a top-25 defense.  This week, the Cougars play on the road against the Cougars of Houston, a team that is in a significant decline in projection trends.  WSU is more than a two touchdown favorite.

The full slate of predictions . . .

Savvy Index 2019        
predictions week 3    
   2019  Prediction record:
134-24        85%
Sept 14 2019  
teams wins losses prediction notes
Texas Tech 2 0 41 Arizona ranks 126th
Arizona 1 1 43 in total defense.
  PAC12      
Arizona St. 2 0 17  
Michigan St. 2 0 27  
  PAC12      
N Texas 1 1 24 UNT doesn’t seem the
California 2 0 30 same w/out OC Graham Harrell.
  PAC12      
Air Force 1 0 27 Coach Tucker is winning
Colorado 2 0 33 like we thought he would.
  PAC12      
Montana 2 0 17  
Oregon 1 1 49  
  PAC12      
Cal Poly 1 1 14
Oregon St. 0 2 44  
  PAC12      
Oklahoma 2 0 42 OU’s suspect defense vs
UCLA 0 2 24 UCLA’s frustrating offense.
  PAC12      
USC 2 0 37 Slovis of USC leads
BYU 1 1 24 FBS in completion %
  PAC12      
Hawai’i 2 0 28 Hawai’i leads the
Washington 1 1 41 nation in turnovers.
  PAC12      
Washington St. 2 0 41 WSU’s Borghi is 13th
Houston 1 1 28 in FBS rushing.
  PAC12      
Colorado St. 1 1 23 Arkansas’ defense
Arkansas 1 1 24 is much better.
         
Kent St. 1 1 10  
Auburn 2 0 36  
         
Florida Atl. 0 2 30 Ball State averaging
Ball St. 1 1 27 499 yards per game.
         
Kansas 1 1 17  
Boston Col 2 0 34  
         
Portland St. 0 1 7 PSU almost beat an
Boise St. 2 0 46 SEC in week 1.
         
LA Tech 1 1 27 La Tech is struggling
Bowling Green 1 1 14 to produce offense.
         
Norfolk St. 1 1 14 This is the most-likely
Coastal Car 1 1 31 upset game of the week.
         
Massachusetts 0 2 28  
Charlotte 1 1 34  
         
Miami Oh 1 1 21  
Cincinnati 1 1 28  
         
Akron 0 2 20 Two greatly under-
C Michigan 1 1 17 performing teams.
         
New Hampshire 0 1 3 At last FIU should be
Florida Intl. 0 2 34 able to move the football.
         
Citadel 0 2 10  
Georgia Tech 1 1 37  
         
Arkansas St. 1 1 24  
Georgia 2 0 40  
         
E Michigan 1 1 28 I personally think EMU
Illinois 2 0 30 is the better team.
         
Ohio St. 2 0 41  
Indiana 2 0 24  
         
Iowa 2 0 32  
Iowa St. 1 0 24  
         
Florida 2 0 27  
Kentucky 2 0 28  
         
Texas Southern 0 2 7  
LA Lafayette 1 1 59  
         
Buffalo 1 1 24  
Liberty 0 2 21  
         
N’western St. 0 2 7  
LSU 2 0 54  
         
Ohio 1 1 20 Two erratic teams— put
Marshall 1 1 21 this on the dart board.
         
Duke 1 1 33 Can coach Stockstill do well
Middle Tenn 1 1 28 without his son at qb? Yes.
         
Bethune-Cookman 1 0 7  
Miami Fl 0 2 40  
         
Georgia So. 1 1 17  
Minnesota 2 0 28  
         
SE Louisiana 1 0 3  
Mississippi 1 1 49  
         
Kansas St. 2 0 28  
Mississippi St. 2 0 34  
         
SE Missouri St. 1 1 21  
Missouri 1 1 48  
         
E Carolina 1 1 24  
Navy 1 0 31  
         
N Illinois 1 1 24 Savvy has not been close
Nebraska 1 1 30 to ranking Nebraska.
         
Weber St. 1 1 21
Nevada 1 1 32 High upset alert.
         
San Diego St. 2 0 33 NMSU just doesn’t have
New Mexico St. 0 2 14 the bodies, esp on defense.
         
New Mexico 1 0 17  
Notre Dame 1 0 39  
         
UNLV 1 1 14  
Northwestern 0 1 34  
         
Pittsburgh 1 1 21  
Penn St. 2 0 39  
         
TCU 1 0 30 Has Purdue solved
Purdue 1 1 31 its turnover problem?
         
Texas 1 1 46  
Rice 0 2 14  
         
Memphis 2 0 34 S Alabama is quirky
S Alabama 1 1 21 enough to win this.
         
Alabama 2 0 45  
S Carolina 1 1 28  
         
Texas St. 0 2 24 SMU could be 6-0
SMU 2 0 37 before the grind starts.
         
Clemson 2 0 35  
Syracuse 1 1 24  
         
Lamar 2 0 14  
Texas A&M 1 1 45  
         
Maryland 2 0 41 Two of the top six
Temple 1 0 35 scoring teams in FBS.
         
Chattanooga 1 1 10 This won’t jump-start
Tennessee 0 2 36 the Vols’ season.
         
Murray St. 1 1 14 Murray State’s second
Toledo 0 1 52 FBS opponent in a row.
         
S Miss 1 1 21  
Troy 1 0 28  
         
Missouri St. 0 1 7 Tulane finally trending up…
Tulane 1 1 43 like we expected last year.
         
Oklahoma St. 2 0 42  
Tulsa 1 1 28  
         
Stanford 1 1 24  
UCF 2 0 35  
         
S Carolina St 2 0 6 USF is 130th for total offense.
USF 0 2 42 Charlie won’t be here much longer.
         
Idaho St. 1 0 13  
Utah 2 0 44  
         
Army 1 1 31  
UTSA 1 1 14  
         
Furman 1 1 21 VaTech with huge
Va Tech 1 1 49 negatives on Savvy.
         
Florida St. 1 1 30  
Virginia 2 0 33  
         
N Carolina 2 0 30  
Wake Forest 2 0 36  
         
Louisville 1 1 28  
W Kentucky 1 1 20
         
Georgia St. 2 0 30 GSU is up, then down…
W Michigan 1 1 35  up this week but not enough to win.
         
N Carolina St. 2 0 27  
W Virginia 1 1 17  
         
Idaho 1 1 3 Wyoming finally gets
Wyoming 2 0 48 some passing yardage.