2019 spring football rankings, all 130 teams

2019. Arizona. Khalil Tate
Will Arizona finally unleash the ultimate Cat?

Although the FBS landscape is still uncertain, Savvy has enough data to produce spring rankings for all 130 teams.

To simplify reads and reviews, I’ve combined uncounted columns of data for each team into four gray-shaded columns in the rankings chart below.  I confess that writing a synopsises for 130 teams sounded like a lotta work [as it was last season] and a simple chart should convey just as much information.

In those four gray-shaded scales, I’ve entered an alphabetic character; the letter “H” for high or very good;  “M” for medium or moderate; and “L” for low or, in some cases I suppose, lousy.

Since there are 130 teams and only three alphabetical letters, there is an average of 33 teams per letter which might create too much generalization and perhaps the need to use more letters.  But, I sorta like it over-generalized because those of  you who think your team deserves a better letter can just imagine that your team is at the upper end and that might be enough for me  to avoid your wrath for being an idiot.

Let’s talk a little about those shaded columns, what they mean, and why they are important in the Savvy scheme.

2018 trend

This set of data analyzes success trends for each team during the past few seasons with a greater emphasis on 2018.  If a team has been trending upward under the same coach, it is likely to gain projection value while teams with downward trends are likely to lose.  Trends are not just the progression or recession of wins and losses but rather, scrimmage performances, strength of opposition, recruiting, performance against Savvy expectations, consistency of coaches, etc.

2018 earned

This is a multi-part analyses that essentially pulls teams out of comparisons with other FBS teams and evaluates each one against various fixed standards.   It is an effective cross-check between the clutter of a team’s myriad of performance measures compared to other teams and the purity of its performance against a fixed bar.  It’s fascinating to see how those differences explain why a team did what it did and and why the team will do what it will do.

Program legacy

Some teams won fewer games than expected.  But, should those teams be drastically down-ranked if they have a legacy of elite success, they play strong opposition, and they have Power Five recruiting “pull”?  Should a mid-major suddenly become top 25 because it won more games in 2018 than it did in the two previous seasons combined?  Some should; some shouldn’t.   “Program legacy” studies nearly two dozen components to help answer those questions.

2019 return production

The “return production” element is an effective tool for projecting the new season.  Is the head coach returning?  Did the starting quarterback transfer?  What about blockers, blitzers, special teams, receivers, running backs, coverage guys and so on.  Accurately assessing the returning producers has been a big part of Savvy’s success in preseason projections.

There are other points of review but these are the four in which the most elements can be merged into single categories.

After countless hours of studying websites, we’ve been able to project most of the starting quarterbacks but many of those won’t be affirmed until August at which time we’ll learn the errors of our ways.  [We were about 87% accurate at this time last year which also means we were 13% clueless on the rest.]  Since quarterbacks are so influential for team success, we will continue to track things and publish a top-50 in July.

 

Savvy Index          
             
  Spring 2019          
spring rank   2019 prelimary net prime 2018 trend 2018 earned program legacy 2019 return  production
1 Clemson 325.8 H H H H
2 Alabama 324.8 H H H H
3 Notre Dame 323.5 H H H H
4 Georgia 322.9 H H H H
5 LSU 322.0 H H H H
6 Oklahoma 321.6 H H H H
7 Ohio St. 321.2 H H H M
8 Florida 321.0 H H H H
9 Stanford 320.9 H H H H
10 Oregon 320.3 H H H H
11 Michigan 320.2 H H H H
12 Washington 320.2 H H H M
13 Utah 320.1 H H H M
14 Texas A&M 320.0 H H H M
15 Kentucky 319.8 H H H H
16 Syracuse 319.6 H H H H
17 Washington St. 319.4 H H H M
18 Mississippi St. 319.3 H M H M
19 Iowa 319.1 H M M H
20 Auburn 319.1 H M H M
21 Texas 318.9 M M H H
22 Duke 318.9 M M H H
23 Northwestern 318.8 H M M M
24 Va Tech 318.6 H M H M
25 Penn St. 318.5 H H H L
26 N Carolina St. 318.1 H M H M
27 Missouri 318.4 M M H M
28 S Carolina 318.3 M M H H
29 Wisconsin 318.0 M M H M
30 W Virginia 318.0 H M H L
31 Iowa St. 317.9 M M M H
32 Cincinnati 317.7 M M L H
33 Oklahoma St. 317.7 M M H M
34 UCF 317.6 M H M H
35 Virginia 317.6 L M H H
36 Florida St. 317.6 M M H M
37 Utah St. 317.2 M M L H
38 USC 317.1 M M H M
39 Miami Fl 317.1 M M H L
40 Boise St. 317.1 L H M H
41 Michigan St. 317.0 H M M M
42 Wake Forest 316.9 L M M M
43 Pittsburgh 316.8 L M M M
44 Army 316.8 L H M M
45 Georgia Tech 316.8 M M H L
46 Baylor 316.6 L M M H
47 TCU 316.6 M M M L
48 Tennessee 316.6 L M M M
49 App State 316.5 M M M M
50 Troy 316.3 M M M M
51 California 316.3 M M M M
52 Vanderbilt 316.3 L M M M
53 Boston Col 316.2 L M H H
54 Texas Tech 316.2 M M M M
55 Arizona 316.2 M M M M
56 Mississippi 316.1 M L H L
57 Fresno St. 316.0 M H M H
58 Minnesota 315.8 M M M M
59 Arizona St. 315.6 L M M L
60 Houston 315.6 M M M M
61 Nebraska 315.5 L M M M
62 N Carolina 315.5 M L M L
63 San Diego St. 315.4 M M L M
64 UAB 315.3 L H L M
65 N Texas 315.3 L M L H
66 Memphis 315.3 L M M M
67 Marshall 315.3 M M L M
68 Buffalo 315.2 L M L M
69 BYU 315.1 L M M M
70 Temple 315.1 M M M L
71 Hawaii 315.0 L M L H
72 Indiana 315.0 L M M M
73 Colorado 315.0 L L M M
74 Florida Intl. 315.0 L M L H
75 Ohio 314.9 L M L M
76 Georgia So. 314.9 L M L H
77 Kansas St. 314.8 M L M L
78 LA Tech 314.8 L M L M
79 Purdue 314.7 L M M M
80 USF 314.7 M M L M
81 N Illinois 314.6 M M L L
82 UCLA 314.3 L L M L
83 Nevada 314.1 M M L L
84 Wyoming 313.8 L M L M
85 Louisville 313.7 L L M L
86 W Michigan 313.7 L L L M
87 Middle Tenn 313.5 M M L L
88 Toledo 313.3 L M L L
89 Arkansas St. 313.3 L M L L
90 LA Lafayette 313.3 L M L L
91 Arkansas 313.3 L L M L
92 Maryland 313.1 L M M L
93 LA Monroe 313.0 L L L M
94 Tulane 313.0 L M L M
95 SMU 312.9 L L L L
96 E Michigan 312.6 L L L M
97 S Miss 312.6 L L L M
98 Air Force 312.5 L L L L
99 Oregon St. 312.5 L L M L
100 Florida Atl. 312.3 L L L M
101 Navy 312.2 L L L L
102 Liberty 312.0 L L L M
103 Illinois 311.9 L L L L
104 Kansas 311.8 L L M L
105 Rutgers 311.5 L L L L
106 Miami Oh 311.5 L M L L
107 New Mexico 311.4 L L L L
108 Colorado St. 311.3 L L L L
109 UNLV 311.0 L L L L
110 Tulsa 310.9 L L L L
111 S Alabama 310.8 L L L L
112 Coastal Car 310.7 L L L L
113 Akron 310.7 L L L L
114 New Mexico St. 310.7 L L L M
115 Ball St. 310.5 L L L L
116 Bowling Green 310.3 L L L L
117 San Jose St. 310.2 L L L L
118 Georgia St. 310.0 L L L L
119 Charlotte 309.9 L L L L
120 Old Dominion 309.8 L L L L
121 Texas St. 309.7 L L L L
122 Connecticut 309.7 L L L L
123 Massachusetts 309.5 L L L L
124 E Carolina 309.4 L L L L
125 W Kentucky 309.3 L L L L
126 UTSA 309.2 L L L L
127 C Michigan 309.2 L L L L
128 Kent St. 309.2 L L L L
129 Rice 308.7 L L L L
130 UTEP 307.8 L L L L

….