2018 predictions: week 2

 

Ducks uniforms 2018

 

Savvy Index will predict 79 games this week after finishing 72-12 over the weekend.

Fresno State at Minnesota rates as the closest pairing which makes a strong case for either team winning.  Georgia at South Carolina is the highest-ranked game and Savvy has a surprisingly close (at least to me) two point margin.  Stanford hosts USC in the other game matching ranked teams.

Close games take more involved processes but the hardest game to predict this week was none of the above.  The hardest game was Idaho playing a team that isn’t even in the FCS—Western New Mexico.

For that, we had to figure out if WNMU actually was a school and if it had a football team. Indeed it does, right there in Silver City, New Mexico.  And, it has a schedule filled with those stalwarts of the Southwest such as UT Permian Basin, Texas A&M-Commerce, and one you’ve heard of even if you don’t remember it—Tarleton State.

We had to start from scratch to build a model before plugging WNMU into Savvy.  It seems to me the system has this prediction figured pretty well:   58-7 for Idaho.

Before anyone gets too harsh with Idaho for scheduling a mirage opponent, keep in mind that Idaho was expatriated from its conference at the end of last season and for expatriated teams, it’s often very hard to find opponents to fill in for all of those lost from the conference.

Hawai’i is the fastest-rising team on Savvy while Colorado State has fallen like no other.

  Savvy Index     2018  
Predictions week 2    
  Last week: 72 – 12   Sept 8  
rank Season:   75 – 13  85% wins losses value notes
  UCLA 0 1 20 Bruins look like a
13 Oklahoma 1 0 30 3-9 team.
           
22 USC 1 0 28 Troy ranked 120 vs rush.
20 Stanford 1 0 30  
           
  N Dakota 1 0 3 This will be over in
8 Washington 0 1 51 five minutes.
           
15 Michigan St. 1 0 39 Now we find out if the
  Arizona St. 1 0 27 Hermie experiment works.
           
  San Jose St. 0 1 21  
  Washington St. 1 0 47  
           
  Portland St. 0 1 17 Herbert plays one half
19 Oregon 1 0 68 for the Ducks.
           
  Utah 1 0 35  
  N Illinois 0 1 24  
           
  Arizona 0 1 42 Neither team impressed
  Houston 1 0 35 last week.
           
  California 1 0 27  
  BYU 1 0 21  
           
  Colorado 1 0 24  
  Nebraska 0 0 33  
           
  S Utah 0 1 24  
  Oregon St. 0 1 36  
           
  New Mexico 1 0 21  
9 Wisconsin 1 0 43  
           
  Connecticut 0 1 13  
  Boise St. 1 0 40  
           
  Wyoming 1 1 27  
  Missouri 1 0 38  
           
  Sacramento St. 1 0 7  
  San Diego St. 0 1 40  
           
  Air Force 1 0 24  
  Florida Atl. 0 1 41  
           
  Fresno St. 1 0 33 This is nearly a 50-50
  Minnesota 1 0 32 toss-up.
           
  Nevada 1 0 17 ..but this Wolfpack team
  Vanderbilt 1 0 32 is much better.
           
  Arkansas 1 0 28 CSU—biggest disappointment
  Colorado St. 0 2 24 in the nation. Can Rams finally rush?
           
  UTEP 0 1 31  
  UNLV 0 1 41  
           
  Rice 1 1 36  
  Hawai’i 2 0 42  
           
  New Mexico St. 0 2 30  
  Utah St. 0 1 42  
           
  Texas Southern 1 0 21  
  Texas St. 0 1 34  
           
  W New Mexico 0 1 7  
  Idaho 0 1 58  
           
  Arkansas St. 1 0 3  
1 Alabama 1 0 37  
           
2 Clemson 1 0 44  
  Texas A&M 1 0 36  
           
25 Mississippi St. 1 0 38  
  Kansas St. 1 0 36  
           
6 TCU 1 0 41  
  SMU 0 1 17  
           
  Tulsa 1 0 21 Tulsa turnovers should
  Texas 0 1 47 make this easy for Texas.
           
  Lamar 1 0 27  
  Texas Tech 0 1 62  
           
  Incarnate Word 0 1 14  
  N Texas 1 0 44  
           
  Kansas 0 1 24  
  C Michigan 0 1 27  
           
  Baylor 1 0 40
  UTSA 0 1 42  
           
  Rutgers 1 0 24  
3 Ohio St. 1 0 46  
           
  Ball St. 1 0 7  
18 Notre Dame 1 0 40  
           
  S Alabama 0 1 17  
17 Oklahoma St. 1 0 50  
           
  Duke 1 0 24  
21 Northwestern 1 0 33  
           
  Iowa St. 0 0 32  
16 Iowa 1 0 36  
           
  W Michigan 0 1 14 This is one to keep tabs
  Michigan 0 1 36 on for upset.
           
  E Michigan 1 0 14 This prediction is 98%
  Purdue 0 1 31 firm on Savvy.
           
  Virginia 1 0 27  
  Indiana 1 0 30  
           
  Maryland 1 0 44  
  Bowling Green 0 1 28  
           
  W Illinois 0 1 17  
  Illinois 1 0 35  
           
  Morgan St. 0 1 14  
  Akron 0 0 40  
           
  Howard 0 1 20 Kent won’t make
  Kent St. 0 1 28 many mistakes.
           
3 Georgia 1 0 33  
12 S Carolina 1 0 31  
           
4 Penn St. 1 0 44 PSU: Last week just 7-point
  Pittsburgh 1 0 30 win over App St = concern.
           
  Alabama St. 1 0 3  
5 Auburn 1 0 50  
           
  Savannah St. 0 1 0 This win won’t get the
14 Miami Fl 0 1 51 Hurricanes back in the rankings.
           
  S Carolina St 0 1 17  
  UCF 1 0 53  
           
  SE Louisiana 0 1 6 Still don’t think LSU
  LSU 1 0 45 is a top-10.
           
  William & Mary 1 0 7  
10 Va Tech 1 0 55  
           
  Georgia St. 1 0 0  
11 N Carolina St. 1 0 49  
           
  Indiana St. 1 0 14  
  Louisville 0 1 56  
           
  Samford 1 0 3 Samford is a good enough
24 Florida St. 0 1 39 FCS to win this.
           
  Towson 1 0 10 WF had an exodus of receivers
  Wake Forest 1 0 45 but found a new batch that’s fabulous.
           
  S Illinois 1 0 3  
  Mississippi 1 0 42  
           
  Holy Cross 0 1 9  
  Boston Col 1 0 45  
           
  Youngstown St. 0 1 14  
  W Virginia 1 0 48  
           
23 Georgia Tech 1 0 34  
  USF 1 0 21  
           
  Memphis 1 0 35 Little bit of concern about
  Navy 0 1 34 Tigers’ disciplines.
           
  Kentucky 1 0 37 This may go the other way but
  Florida 1 0 35 Gators shouldn’t be ranked yet.
           
  Florida A&M 1 0 9  
  Troy 0 1 40  
           
  Liberty 1 0 24 Liberty is better than
  Army 0 1 41 critics seem to think.
           
  Wagner 1 0 17  
  Syracuse 1 0 53  
           
  N Carolina 0 1 31 Suspensions are killing
  E Carolina 0 1 17 the Tarheels.
           
  E Tennesse St. 1 0 6  
  Tennessee 0 1 40  
           
  App State 0 1 38  
  Charlotte 1 0 30  
           
  LA Monroe 1 0 21  
  S Miss 1 0 35  
           
  Florida Intl. 0 1 40  
  Old Dominion 0 1 30  
           
  Southern Univ. 0 1 28  
  LA Tech 1 0 48  
           
  E Kentucky 1 0 17  
  Marshall 1 0 44  
           
  UAB 1 0 33  
  Coastal Car 0 1 24  
           
  Tenn-Martin 0 1 17  
  Middle Tenn 0 1 37  
           
  Buffalo 1 0 30 Temple looked awful
  Temple 0 1 27 last week.
           
  Cincinnati 1 0 31 Upset.
  Miami Oh 0 1 35  
           
  Nicholls St. 1 0 20 …but Nichlls kncoked off
  Tulane 0 1 35 an FBS last week.
           
  Maine 1 0 21 WKU may be FBS but
  W Kentucky 0 1 39 Maine has it together.
           
  Massachusetts 1 1 27  
  Georgia So. 1 0 14  
         

 

 

 

 

 

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